ANB-BIA SUPPLEMENT

ISSUE/EDITION Nr 325 - 01/06/1997

South Africa

Update

by Ashley Green-Thompson, South Africa, May 1997

THEME = POLITICS

INTRODUCTION -- The author explains his thesis that
South Africa is still on track as one of Africa's best chances of a success story

PART 2/2

International Trade

On the regional front, South Africa's position looks decidedly more positive. Minister of Trade and Industry Alec Erwin has committed the government to trade policies that benefit the Southern African region as a whole. South Africa's economic development cannot happen without the development of the region. One example of this, is the linking of Johannesburg to Maputo by a super highway.

However, this commitment does not seem to be shared by private companies who see great opportunities in newly opened markets. Community activists and commentators in neighbouring states, bemoan the deluge of South African products on their shelves, more often than not at the expense of local producers. South Africa is far and away the largest and most developed economy in the region, and the temptation to take advantage of this fact might still prove too much to resist.

On a global level, South Africa has recently become a signatory to the Lome Convention, that offers favourable trading arrangement to African, Caribbean and Pacific countries in their dealings with the European Union. However, the membership is limited, and a large chunk of domestic agricultural products such as wine, are excluded from the agreement. The significance of this agreement seems to be fading, though, as trade links with new countries, diminish the monopoly that Europe enjoyed with South African products.

Political Developments

With all these problems the African National Congress (ANC) remains firmly in control of the country. Political stability must rank as one of the achievements of the new government. Political violence has disappeared, with the notable exception of KwaZulu Natal. Tension between the ANC and Home Affairs Minister Gatsha Buthelezi's Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) continues to undermine the economic development of potentially the most lucrative tourist destination in the country. The battle appears to be for control of the largely rural constituency, the backbone of support of the IFP. In last year's local government elections, the ANC convincingly won the urban vote in this IFP governed province, leaving the IFP to ponder its future in 1999. Relations between the IFP and ANC continue to be problematic, despite the installation on two occasions of Minister Buthelezi as Acting President.

The Churches

While natural political animosities continue to characterise party politics, South African Churches are developing a better relationship with the state. The Catholic Bishops' Conference have recently established a parliamentary liaison office, as has the ecumenical South African Council of Churches. While it is accepted that government and Church will never always agree, the potential and space for co-operation in areas such as Foreign Affairs has increased.

Elections

The ANC will likely win another albeit smaller majority in the 1999 national and provincial elections. Deputy President Thabo Mbeki is a fait accompli as Mandela's successor. But who Mbeki's deputy will be, is the question on the lips of many. ANC National Chairperson and KwaZulu Natal party chief Jacob Zuma is regarded as the closest to Mbeki in terms of thinking. However, Mbeki has been perceived as only hiring people who think like him and will not challenge his authority. Zuma fits the bill, and this might not endear him to the party faithful. Gauteng Province Premier Tokyo Sexwale remains in contention, but somehow cannot shrug off perceptions that he has no substance. He is seen as a populist with no real political vision. Joel Netzhitenze, an advisor to Mbeki, could also feature in the race, although his low public profile might rule him out of contention.

But it is Mathews Phosa, Premier of Mpumalanga Province and head of the ANC Legal Department, who is emerging as a front runner. Young, ambitious and relatively successful in running his tourist rich province, he is appearing more and more as the ANC's chief spokesperson on many controversial issues. He has the popular appeal of a Tokyo Sexwale that will act as a foil to Mbeki's rather colourless image, and he has a proven track record with the party.

Winnie Mandela

While South Africa does not seem ready for a woman at the helm of the ship, an eye should be kept on President Mandela's ex- wife, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela. She bounced back from adversity and the sidelines of the ANC by being re-elected President of the ANC Women's League, an influential lobby within the ruling party. She has proven support among the poorest communities - always a significant ANC powerbase. While the top ANC leadership would rather not have to deal with her (they are often embarrassed by her direct and forthright manner, as well as some shady business and political activities), Madikizela- Mandela will occupy a seat, as Women's League head, on the national executive committee, the party's highest decision-making body between national congresses.

Bantu Holomisa

The ANC could also be embarrassed by one of its sons, former Cabinet member Bantu Holomisa. Expelled for insubordination and bringing the party into disrepute, the former homeland dictator is another popular politician among marginalised communities. Many feel that he was kicked out for exposing corruption within the ANC, and he is using this popular sympathy to launch his own political party. Discontent with the slow rate of delivery on election promises, and the fact that the 1999 election will be a more informed and less emotional one, could see significant losses from traditional ANC votes to the new party.

F.W. de Klerk

F.W. De Klerk, on the other hand, is fighting for his political survival and for that of his party. Recent polls show that traditional National Party support is being eroded, from both ends of the political spectrum. De Klerk has set his new vision as creating "a middle of the road" opposition to the ANC, but the electorate is not biting. The apartheid past is too brutal and too recent for people, especially the black majority to forget, and no other party seems interested in forming alliances. But De Klerk must stay on, if only to keep the party together. Nobody else has his stature, little enough as it is, and without him the party would tear itself apart. South Africa could see a new opposition emerging in 1999, and it will not be the National Party.

Conclusion

South Africa still has a long way to go before it can be called a democracy. Basic concepts of respect for human life and dignity are still too fresh in the psyche of the nation to have their full impact on society. There is still glaring inequality, and the poverty levels seem to grow each day. But the horizon looks good. The new constitution and a political leadership that is showing the potential to take the country into the new millennium, bode well for future generations. It is safe to say that the South Africa is still on track as one of Africa's best chances of a success story

END of PART 2/2

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PeaceLink 1997 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement