by Léandre Prince Ratsiazo, Madagascar, May 1997
THEME = POLITICS
Just a reminder of what's been happening. Readers will recall the long struggle between President Albert Zafy and Members of Parliament. On 5 September 1996, following a secret ballot by MPs, President Zafy had to resign. His resignation was upheld by a Constitutional Panel. The Supreme Court then appointed Prime Minister Norbert Ratsirahonana as Chief Executive in the interim. The first round of presidential elections were scheduled for 3 November 1996 with 15 candidates. By the time, the results were announced, two former presidents, Admiral Didier Ratsiraka and Professor Albert Zafy led the race for the presidency. They were to be candidates for the second round of presidential elections.
Admiral Ratsiraka won the elections with 50.71% of the vote, against 49.29% for Professor Zafy. Abstentions were high - more than 50% of the electorate failed to turn out. There really wasn't much enthusiasm for the victor!
Admiral Ratsiraka is the second elected President in the Third Republic. He is only too aware of the heavy task awaiting him - that of putting the country back on its feet, especially as regards the nation's economy and human resources. These were the main themes of the electoral campaign. How will the President achieve his aims?
In his first public speech, Madagascar's new president outlined his plans to set up what he called a "humanist and ecological republic", the first on the African continent. Yet for the Malagasy people, this promise is still only a hypothesis.
Secondly, the people will be called upon in a referendum, to choose between a certain decentralisation of state structures or a federal-style state.
According to the present Constitution, (adopted by 70% of those who voted in the August 1992 referendum), Madagascar is a centralised state. On 17 September 1995, amendments were made to the Constitution. Even though more liberal in character and certainly more in line with the "winds of democracy" sweeping across Africa, this revised Constitution was considered by Admiral Ratsiraka to be a "hybrid constitution", made up of absurdities and contradictions. Ironically, when the Admiral took his Oath of Office, he swore to uphold this same Constitution and to respect it to the full.
The idea of creating a federal state in Madagascar is not new. In 1991, Admiral Ratsiraka had already mooted the idea but this resulted in violent demonstrations. There was intense rivalry between those who were for a centralised state (mainly members of the "Living Forces" [a powerful political movement], backed by the Confederation of Christian Churches in Madagascar), and the federalists. Extremists among the federalists turned to open violence, even going as far as blowing up bridges linking the capital, Antananarivo, to the country's main producing regions, thus isolating the capital, considered to be a stronghold in the rebellion against Ratsiraka. These acts of violence by the federalists, were political blunders of the first order, and provided the centralists with an ideal opportunity to make their stance against a federal state felt.
Then came the Third Republic. The federalists recognized their past mistakes and returned to a democratic way of acting. The biggest surprise was a reconciliation between the federalists and the hard-core political department of the Living Forces called the "Rasamala". Previously antagonists, these two entities showed that with a certain amount of good will, it is possible to bury the hatchet and unite their efforts in nation-building.
With Didier Ratsiraka's return to power, there's been a re-emergence of proposals for a federal constitution. Individual politicians and political groupings who previously were quite sceptical, are now prepared to debate the issue.
According to a constitutional analyst, there are four well defined conditions for setting up a federal state adapted to Madagascar's needs.
* Firstly, multi-party democracy cannot exist without true freedom. The legislative, executive and judiciary must be separate from each other. There is no place for presidential rule.
* Secondly, the implications of establishing a federal state for Madagascar must be clearly spelled out in appropriate Acts. This is all-important, as establishing a federal system of government will be no easy matter, considering the present relationship of the existing provinces with the central government, and the practical consequences of decentralisation.
* Thirdly, due recognition must be made of Madagascar's past political history. Likewise the country's present situation must be appreciated and accepted by the body politic.
* Fourthly, already-existing ethnic, religious and language borders must be taken into consideration when establishing new federal states.
Didier Ratsiraka who thought up the whole scheme isn't saying much at this stage. He's leaving it to the Malagasy people to do the groundwork, and prepare the future voters psychologically for the great moment when they will be called upon to choose. Obviously a great deal of prudence is needed for it wouldn't take much to stir up public opinion against the present centralised Constitution, which is backed by the Confederation of Christian Churches. The Confederation is made up of the four major Christian religions, and numbers more than five millions faithful. President Ratsiraka, who was a Marxist and a dictator during the time of the Second Republican, knows all about the Confederation, having clashed with it previously.
Opposition parties are increasing in number and they take every occasion to express their opinions. Professor Zafy is leader of the National Union for the Development of Democracy. In a recent interview with foreign journalists of the International Television Association, he described his successor, President Ratsiraka. as "paranoid".
Meanwhile, the party-in-power and the politicians are giving themselves over to their favourite occupation - exchanging mutual insults. This results in political tension everywhere such as the strike by university students, who are demanding an increase in their scholarship grants. This could be dangerous for the government. Then there's the strike by thousands of state employees who are afraid that one day they'll find themselves without a job, because of cut-backs imposed by the Bretton Woods Institutions (World Bank and International Monetary Fund). Add to all this, unforseen problems like natural disasters (tropical hurricanes, locust invasions, etc), and you've got a recipe for disaster.
One can understand why after three months in office, Prime Minister Pascal Rakotomavo, has hardly done anything positive. He's under constant pressure from his critics, so much so, that he's only got as far as naming his new ministers. It would seem that the country's political situation is far from stable, and that Madagascar's socio-economic expansion could suffer the consequences.
The Malagasy people have grown tired of unkept promises and the mess their political rulers have left them. But they've lost nothing of their dignity and are fighting to survive.
END