ANB-BIA SUPPLEMENT

ISSUE/EDITION Nr 328 - 15/07/1997

Nigeria

Abacha joins the band wagon

by Kenneth Dareng, Nigeria, 5 May 1997

THEME = POLITICS

INTRODUCTION

As Nigerians continue to wait patiently for the final exit
of the present military administration on 1 October 1998,
there seems to be a wide range of controversy as to whether the present Head of State,
General Sani Abacha, will or will not hand over power, in accordance with democratic principles

Many citizens are beginning to express concern, bearing in mind the way political events have been unfolding in the country, coupled with the current trend of Africa's "self- transformed" military presidents like Yahaya Jammeh of The Gambia, Ibrahim Mainasara of Niger, Matthew Kerekou of Benin, Jerry John Rawlings of Ghana, Blaise Campaore of Burkina Faso and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda.
It is suspected that General Abacha will eventually join this list. Pressure has been mounted in this direction by people such as the Press Secretary to the Head of State, Chief David Attah; Justice Mamman Nasir, who is Chairman of the Transition Implementation Committee (TIC); Chief Godwin Daboh, who is Chairman of the National Mobilisation and Persuasion Committee of the "Abacha for President Project". On various occasions they have agitated that the present regime should continue.
Chief Samuel Ikoku is a former member of the TIC. In a recent press statement, he revealed that General Abacha is being influenced to stand in the forthcoming presidential election.
According to Chief Ikoku, General Abacha's candidacy could be justified if the following conditions were to be fulfilled: 1) He must be nominated by at least one of the five registered political parties. 2) He must stand as a civilian, which means resigning as Commander-in-Chief of the Nigerian Armed Forces.
A pressure group known as "Youth Earnestly Ask for Abacha '98" (YEAA) has been touring various parts of the country, holding solidarity rallies in support of Abacha's candidacy. YEAA's Executive Director, Mr.Daniel Kanu, said in a recent Press Statement that his organisation has every right to express their particular views on this subject.
It should be noted, however, that the Special Duties Minister, Alhaji Wada Nas, recently issued a statement on behalf of the government, disassociating itself from those clamouring for Abacha to run in the 1998 presidential election. Elements within government circles are concerned about the credentials of the pro-Abacha campaigners. They believe that the credibility problem of the campaigners could damage the present regime's image.

Options

According to Mr.David Dogh, Publicity Director for the Congress for National Consensus (CNC) "The idea of asking people to call on General Abacha to run, is ridiculous. Let him talk to Nigerians. Let him resign, join a political party and start campaigning. The sooner he does this the better, so that he is not seen as manipulating the democratic process".
How will events take shape in the next twelve months? One option for the General is that he might hand over voluntarily to an elected civilian president next year. Among those who believe strongly in this possibility is Akoro George, the Chairman of Rivers State chapter of the Nigerian Bar Association. In a recent press statement, George was of the opinion that "The possibilities are there for General Abacha to hand over power next year. After all, the 15 March 1997 local government elections show that a transition programme is already in place".
Mallam Mohammed Wakili is a political analyst. He says: "The electorate can't vote en masse for the General when a number of expectations of our citizens remain unfulfilled. Many remain unconvinced by "Abacha's economic miracles". For them, there's no question of giving him a blank cheque to continue beyond 1 October 1998".
Dr.Sunday Nbang, president of the Christian Association of Nigeria is of the same opinion: "To say that without Abacha, the world will collapse, is just plain stupid. Nigeria has existed before Abacha and will continue to exist without him. The average Nigerian doesn't have enough money to buy food, and most of them cannot pay their children's school fees. They will not say the government is doing well. Only those benefiting from him will praise him".

Abacha's fears

In a speech at the Nigerian Airforce Reunion held in Kaduna, General Abacha vowed: "I can assure you that this administration will definitely hand over to a democratically elected civilian president, come next year. Be assured that everything humanly possible will be done to ensure a civilian take-over as president of this great country in 1998".
Despite spirited attempts by General Abacha and other senior officials to set peoples minds at ease, people still remember the past.

Empty promises

It will be recalled that General Ibrahim Babangida fooled Nigerians for eight years, and eventually swore that he was going to hand over to a civilian president, "Insha Allah", but that did not happen. He was driven out of office in August 1983. Similarly, General Yakubu Gowon, in the early 1970s, promised that he would quit in favour of a civilian regime on 1 October 1976. But what happened? On 1 October 1974, Gowon told the nation in a broadcast that the 1976 disengagement date was no longer realistic. He kept to his stand until he was shoved aside in a military coup on 29 July 1975. He was replaced by General Murtala Mohammed who promptly announced a political agenda. In 1976, Murtala Mohammed was assassinated and General Obasegun Obasanjo took over. The military were strongly committed to hand over to the civilians by 1979 and President Shagari was sworn into office on 1 October 1979. He was re-elected and again sworn in as President for a second term on 1 October 1983.
On 31 December 1983, Nigeria's soldiers once again seized power and Muhammadu Buhari emerged as the new military ruler. In late 1985, General Babangida came to power and since then, promises have been made for a return to permanent civilian rule - but the country is still waiting.

How to keep Abacha in power

Various methods are being planned to ensure that General Abacha stays beyond 1 October 1998. One such move which is being discussed in hushed tones in political circles, is that General Abacha may still tinker with the constitutional provisions, concerning the programme for a transition to civilian rule. The proposal is for him to contest the election as an independent candidate, instead of joining any of the five political parties. This might be acceptable to the population, and in any case, might create a better opportunity for him to come out victorious in the presidential elections.
Another idea being contemplated by the pro-Abacha group, is that Nigerians could be presented with a plebiscite on whether General Abacha should contest the elections or extend his rule.
If that does not work out, elections for the National Assembly should go ahead in the first quarter of 1998. Members of the National Assembly could then be pressurized to vote for the prolongation of Abacha's regime, beyond 1 October 1998!
We'll see what's going to happen!

END

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PeaceLink 1997 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement