ANB-BIA SUPPLEMENT - ISSUE/EDITION Nr 331 - 01/10/1997

ANB-BIA SUPPLEMENT

ISSUE/EDITION Nr 331 - 01/10/1997

CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE


SOUTH AFRICA

1 - Political Sports field

by Ashley Green-Thompson, September 1997, South Africa

THEME = POLITICS


INTRODUCTION

South Africa has a keen interest in sport,
hoping but failing to host the 2004 Olympic Games... qualifying for next year's World Cup...
If only the world of politics could be contested on the sports field!


There is a school of thought in South Africa that is concerned about the apparent dependence the nation has on sport, to keep the spirits alive. The national football squad sent the nation into paroxysms of celebration, by qualifying for the World Cup in France next year. There was popular support for the failed bid, to host the 2004 Olympic Games. Indeed, if the socio-political scene was a sports-field, South Africa would be a model success story. But it is not, and the drama of life in this beautiful land continues to unfold, painfully at times, but never without passion.


1. POLITICS


It is always exciting to study the political landscape of a newly liberated country. New political alliances and fractures develop, as the population adapts to relatively normal multi-party democracy. In the past few months, there have been a number of realignments and positioning of parties in the national assembly.

The Passing of F.W. De Klerk


Perhaps he should have taken a leaf from former Irish President Mary Robertson, and left politics on the high note that saw him earn a Nobel peace prize, and graciously hand over power to Mandela. Perhaps he should have ridden the storm of internal perestroika, and stuck with former National Party (NP) General Secretary Roelf Meyer's efforts to transform the former ruling party. What he did, was resign at a time when the NP is reeling from key and highly publicised defections to Meyer's New Movement Process. F.W. De Klerk has often been accused of being without the character and fire of his predecessors. His almost non-existent media profile in the months preceding his resignation, bear testimony to this. He has done nothing that even remotely came close to his achievements of 1990 when he announced those momentous reforms. He leaves the party secure in the knowledge that it will not shed its apartheid past. It will not acknowledge it's role in South Africa's sad history. Instead it will fight the truth all the way, including a legal challenge to the Truth Commission. It will cling unofficially to the belief of white supremacy, and become at best, a regional power in the Western Cape, and at worst, a spent irrelevant force with no role in national politics.

Et tu quoque, Felgate?


KwaZulu-Natal is still plagued by political violence and rivalry between ANC and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) supporters. However, party leaders in the province, have been engaged in ongoing negotiations, aimed at finding a political settlement to the conflict that has claimed 169 lives by July this year alone. These negotiations were thrown slightly off course by two things.

The first is the belligerence of the IFP about the Truth Commission. The IFP has refused to participate in the proceedings of the TRC. However, many of its NP-government trained hit-squad members are applying for amnesty, and implicating senior leaders within the party. The IFP response has been, to threaten to collapse the peace talks if the "witch-hunt" continues.

The second serious blow, was the defection of one of IFP leader Gatsha Buthelezi's chief advisers and renowned hard-liner Walter Felgate, to the ANC. Felgate was one of the major obstacles during the multi-party talks, that led to a national settlement and elections in 1994. That he should be so warmly accepted in the ANC raised the ire of not only Buthelezi, but also of many sympathetic to the ANC movement. The information Felgate brings with him seems important, as the IFP tries to get court intervention to silence the defector. At the time of writing, however, talks had been re-opened, but prospects for peace remain gloomy.

Is Democracy alive
in the African National Congress?


A perception is growing, that the ANC has serious difficulty with democratic practices within its ranks. In a number of provinces, there have been ugly leadership disputes. One example, was the ousting of popular Free State Province Premier, Terror Lekota, and the imposition by the national leadership of less popular Ivy Matsepe-Casseburi as his replacement. Again, the decision by Gauteng Premier, Tokyo Sexwale, to seek his fortune with the JCI mining house of prominent businessman Mzi Khumalo, led to a difficult leadership race between provincial party chair, Matole Motshekga, with popular grassroots support within party ranks, and provincial Health Minister Amos Masondo, who enjoys the backing of the National Executive Committee.

In this instance, the membership won out, and the decision will be taken by simple election. It does raise concerns, however, that power blocs in the national leadership (and here it must be assumed that Thabo Mbeki is the major broker), are seeking to control structures at provincial and local level. What they must be careful of, though, is a vibrant grassroots membership within the party that could be growing tired of political machinations at head office.

These tensions could be played out again, as the struggle for Thabo Mbeki's successor heats up. As a certainty to replace Mandela in December 1997 at the ANC National Congress as leader of the party, the race for his Deputy is far from certain. Whoever is the deputy leader of the party, will become the de facto Deputy President of the country after the 1999 elections. Matthews Phosa, the head of the ANC Legal Department appears to have fallen from favour in his bid for power. While his star wanes slightly, there are rumblings that Winnie Madikizela-Mandela is making a play for the top position. She commands considerable support among the rank and file of the movement, and is a survivor par excellence. At present she could be summoned to testify at the Truth Commission, but this by no means indicates any loss of steam in the Winnie juggernaut.

The Roelf and Bantu show


Two more unlikely allies (Roelf Meyer and Bantu Holomisa) it would be difficult to find. Not since Buthelezi and the IFP teamed up with Ferdi Hartzenberg and the right wing Conservative Party, has local politics seen such a marriage of convenience. Meyer is a "verligte" or enlightened ex-National Party Defence Minister, and Holomisa was in charge of the Transkei homeland located in the Eastern Cape, a stronghold of the ANC. When he took power there by a coup, he made it a kind of liberated zone for ANC and Pan Africanist Congress guerrillas. He became the darling of the radical young element within the ANC stronghold of the Eastern Cape.

That either has some political support is not in doubt, although the ANC will dispute this. What is dubious, is their political programme. And yet they have captured the imagination of observers, as the only truly new political movement since 1994. It remains to be seen how much of the establishment vote they will garner in 1999. However, if they seek to provide a serious alternative, they will have to be more circumspect of the type of people they invite to join them, and set some standards and principles. Former Boputhatswana homeland despot Lucas Mangope and former government spy Sifiso Nkabinde are hardly the stuff of real politics, and should be dumped as soon as possible. Observers will watch with interest the launch of the new party in late September.


2. ECONOMICS



Trouble in Paradise?


The Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the ANC remain in a formal tri- partite alliance, that will not split before the 1999 elections. This is true, despite the fact that as the governing party the ANC has been compelled by international reality and pressure, to adopt policies that smack of World Bank/ IMF influence. This is evident in the government's macro-economic plan called Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR). Key in this plan, is the primacy of the private sector, and the market to generate growth, which will ultimately trickle down to the poor in society, through more jobs. GEAR stresses reductions in government expenditure and in particular the reduction of the budget deficit, almost at any cost. The 2-million member COSATU has remained loyal to the alliance, and as a result has not been as critical of government, as it perhaps should be. Instead, the federation has aimed its considerable strike-power at business.

The country weathered a week-long series of strikes recently, in which workers demanded that business should compromise on legislation governing basic conditions of employment. It is not likely that this compromise will happen, raising questions about the role of the liberation movement alliance in determining economic policy direction. In particular there is debate raging in union ranks, on the role of COSATU within the alliance. There are fears that the militancy of the unions is being blunted by the regular compromises on basic worker demands.

Free Market or bust!!


There is also growing dissatisfaction with GEAR from other quarters. The target figures set by Finance Minister Trevor Manual appear to have been a thumb-suck. Growth has fallen. Jobs are being lost. Interest rates remain high, and the value of the Rand keeps plummeting. There are increasingly strident calls from civil society, to revisit economic policy and to involve other players in determining the future of the country.

Masakhane


The government has also put renewed energy into the "Masakhane" (Let us Build Together) Campaign, which calls on residents to pay for services and for arrears, that are a legacy of rent and rate boycotts of the eighties. So far, significant successes have been achieved in changing the public attitude. The challenge is now on local authorities to deliver the services.

Truth and Reconciliation Commission


The Truth Commission is approaching the end of its mandate. It's success in fostering reconciliation and uncovering the truth of the country's history, remains to be assessed. In recent weeks the nation has watched, as the killers of the popular SACP leader Chris Hani applied for amnesty. It is unlikely that Clive Derby-Lewis and Polish immigrant Janusz Walus will qualify, as they blatantly refuse to disclose fully the details of the assassination plot. More chillingly, and not related to the legal arguments for amnesty, Derby-Lewis refused to apologise for the murder, stating arrogantly and misguidedly that it was an act of war for which he could not be expected to apologise. In a macabre farce, he stated that Hani's murder was testimony of the respect he had for his victim.

In KwaZulu-Natal, amnesty applicants are implicating senior IFP politicians in hit-squad activities in the province. Again, the implications for the peace process there are dire. Provincial legislature member Philip Powell is refusing to even acknowledge the TRC, and is prepared to defy a subpoena to testify before the amnesty sub-committee. The message he is sending to rank and file IFP members, only stands to make the remaining work of the TRC more difficult.

The NP at the time of writing, had challenged the TRC in court for not being impartial in its questioning of the party and its erstwhile leader De Klerk, on their role in past atrocities. Civil society organisations and commentators, are convinced that the challenge marks the first salvo in trying to discredit the final report of the TRC. What the nation expects, is for the NP to apologise for the systematic violations of human rights they inflicted on the country for close on forty years. This will prove yet one more nail in the coffin of the National Party.

3. CRIME



Crime continues to be a serious concern, and the popular response is reaching ridiculous depths. Max, a zoo gorilla shot by a confused criminal, was voted the newsmaker of the year, and has become a hero to thousands who have had enough of crime. The appointment of top businessman Meyer Kahn to transform the Police Services, has yet to produce results. Justice Minister Dullah Omar has introduced tougher bail laws. But when the criminal justice system is all but inoperable because of shortages of both resources and enlightened attitudes among magistrates, then no number of draconian laws will make a difference.


4. THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE



On the international front South Africa's diplomats are learning from their mistakes. President Mandela is presently trying to bring John Garang and El Beshir together to seek a settlement in the Sudan. This time there is a lot less fanfare and publicity than there was when Laurent Kabila was on the verge of ousting Mobutu in former Zaire. However, it remains to be seen whether there will be success in bringing an equitable solution to the strife.

Mandela is also trying to broker a settlement in East Timor. He finds himself on the invidious position of being close to Suharto of Indonesia, but sharing the same tradition of resistance as Gusmao, the imprisoned leader of Fretilin. Again, this will be a crucial test in the country's ability to carry out it's avowed foreign policy of promoting human rights.


5. CONCLUSION



The five year game of transition to democracy will be concluded by the national elections of 1999. The most popular player of 1994, the ruling ANC, will see their popularity diminished by about 10% to about 52%. None of the other players are doing any better, though, and early surveys indicate that they will also lose some support. Roelf and Bantu stand to gain as the only newcomers to the game. There is also an outside chance of the IFP, the small but vocal Democratic Party, the NP and others gaining about 40% of the vote in an oppositional coalition.

For the second five-year mandate, the electorate will be more critical of government performance than in 1994. On present indicators, there is likely to be great disillusionment, resulting in lower turnout at the polls. However, this could open the door for a radical party of the poor and working class, led by the South African Communist Party and COSATU, that could provide serious challenge to the dominant ANC in the new millennium. South African politics continues to be far more interesting than sport and games.


END

CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE


PeaceLink 1997 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement