by J. David Mihamle, Yaoundé, Cameroon, 13 September 1997
THEME = ELECTIONS
Pandemonium reigns in the political parties' central offices, as the 12 October presidential election draws ever closer. What's happening? Whereas President Paul Biya's Democratic Rally of the Cameroonian People (RPDC) is in fine fettle and advancing on all pistons, the Opposition is just emerging from its apathy, revamping old techniques in an effort to win the elections. They intended to field just one candidate, but the way things are, this is wishful thinking. Hardly a week goes by, without yet another presidential candidate being announced. As we go to press, at least a dozen people have announced their candidature.
1992 seems to be repeating itself when the Opposition had presented a multiplicity of candidates. Because of the divided opposition, Paul Biya won the election. Biya received 39.9% of the vote; John Fru Ndi - 35.9%; Bello Bouba - 19.2%. If Ndi's Social Democratic Front (SDF) and Bouba's National Union For Development and Progress (UNDP) had fielded one candidate for the presidency, Biya wouldn't have stood a chance. The lesson is clear for these 1997 elections, but has it been learnt?
On 21 June, Victor Ayissi Mvondo (66), who was Interior Minister during Ahmadou Ahidjo's presidency, died in a Paris hospital from a pulmonary embolism. He was the likely opposition candidate for October's elections. Issued from the same region as the present Head of State (Central-South), he seemed to be held in high esteem by Cameroon's Francophone population. He was, however, a permanent thorn in President Biya's side. The party in power attempted to neutralise him, by formulating a number of intimidatory actions against him. On 13 June 1997, his election campaign director, Colonel (Rtd) Herman Akono was placed under house arrest. Also, the government-controlled Press ran a whole series of defamatory articles against him. Mvondo's death has resulted in deep political divisions in the Central-South region.
Titus Edzoa, who used to be Secretary-General in the President's office, is another possible candidate. He resigned his position in the presidency - to everyone's surprise, as he had been one of the key figures in the government for nearly twelve years. In April 1997, Edzoa announced his candidature for the presidency - again, to everyone's surprise. After all, hadn't he been President Biya's close confident? Ayissa Mvondo's death in June meant that he was in an even stronger position. But, the government was determined to put a stopper to his election hopes. On 3 July 1997, Edzoa was accused of embezzling public funds, corruption and trading on his influence. He was arrested and sent to Kondengui prison in Yaoundé. He will soon appear for trial.
The Opposition seems to have done absolutely nothing to make use of the unpopular feeling against the government, occasioned by Edzoa's arrest, to drum up a united front against Biya. Apart from the well-known Cameroonian writer, Mongo Beti, who has organised The Committee to Free Adzoa (COLICITE). The Opposition's lack of action can be put down to self-interest. Parties only seem to be concerned with themselves. Unless they get their act together, victory will remain a Utopia.
And what about John Fru Ndi, the SDF's charismatic leader? The SDF is the main opposition party with 43 Members of Parliament, but the party is rapidly tearing itself apart. Following the 17 May 1997 parliamentary elections, an extremist fringe within the SDF called for a boycott of Parliament. Only Fru Ndi's tact and diplomacy prevented it.
Presently, there are 180 Members of Parliament. The RDPC has an overwhelming majority (with 116 seats) in Parliament, so that greatly reduces the voting power of the Opposition. With this in mind, the UNDP), the SDF and the UDC have decided to boycott the presidential elections. And it's getting worse, as more and more people are calling for an armed intervention.
Faced with this general feeling of unrest in the country, what's the government doing?
First of all they seem to be sucking up to the soldiers whom some call "the regime's spoiled children". This year, the security forces received a budget of some one hundred billion CFA francs (about one billion French francs) - a tenth of the national budget. By far the highest individual allocation and an obvious attempt to keep "the boys happy".
Despairing, some opposition members have called for an armed struggle. But that's to completely misunderstand Cameroon's population. O.K. They are passive, they are resigned to the present state of affairs, they are frustrated, but, even if they are looking for change, they no longer have the heart to take to civil disobedience, as in 1992.
In 1992, the Opposition urged the people to "Ghost Town" (general strike) action, demanding a Sovereign National Conference. But nothing came of this. Also, some opposition personalities such as Frédéric Koddock (UPC) and Dakolé Daissala (MPR) joined the government, which did nothing to encourage the people in their Ghost Town tactics.
Even the international scene seems to favour Biya's cause. On 21 August 1997, the Bretton Woods Institutions (International Monetary Fund and World Bank), approved Cameroon's Three-year Economic Plan and so gave a precious uplift to Paul Biya, thus providing the final touch to his electoral ambitions. And there's more! Rumours are circulating that there may be (even probably will be) a salary increase for government employees. Obviously a sop to win most urban dwellers (usually an opposition stronghold) to the Biya camp at the ballot box.
The general picture seems to be that Paul Biya, inadvertently aided and abetted by the Opposition's aparthy and internal divisions, is heading for victory.
It will take a miracle to unseat the present Head of State and so it looks as if Cameroon is heading for an uncertain tomorrow.
END