by ANB-BIA, Brussels, September 1997
THEME = NUL
Towards the end of the XV century, the Portuguese had already established a foothold on the coast of Africa in what is present-day Mozambique, and had set up some trading posts on the sea route to the Indies. For three centuries they administered this area as a dependency of Portuguese India (Goa). They penetrated a little into a interior, especially along the Zambezi river, but they made very little impression on the country. It was only after the Berlin Conference in 1885 that they felt obliged to effectively occupy the territory they laid claim to. This conquest took 35 years.
Under Salazar, beginning in 1942, Mozambique became "Portugal Overseas". Forced labour, arbitrary taxation, obligation to plant cash crops, the near impossibility of social improvement, ended up by producing acute discontent among the African people and a slowly awakening national consciousness.
As most African countries had gained independence at the beginning of the sixties, the first political organisations began to appear in Mozambique, but given the total absence of liberty at home, they first saw the light of day abroad, in Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Malawi. At the urging of Julius Nyerere, the President of Tanzania, they united in a common front. On 25 June 1962, the Mozambican Liberation Front (FRELIMO) was formed, with Eduardo Mondlane as President. They began the armed struggle in 1964, but it was not until after the 1974 coup d'etat in Portugal, that Mozambique gained its independence (25 June 1975) and power was transferred to FRELIMO. After colonial rule for 500 years, Samora Machel became the first president of free Mozambique.
FRELIMO soon transformed itself from a national liberation movement into a Marxist Party with a programme for building Mozambican socialism. The land became the property of the people under state control. Education and Healthcare were nationalised. Re-education camps were established for former collaborators of the Portuguese. The state took over most industries. But as the old colonials fled the country in mass (700,000) and the economic system was not able to function without them, production plummeted.
On the other hand, FRELIMO dissidents, dissatisfied with the Marxist-Leninist orientation followed by Maputo, fled to South Africa where they set up the Mozambique National Resistance Movement (RENAMO). This movement resorted to arms to "restore democracy" in Mozambique and adopted guerrilla tactics with the help of Rhodesia (former Zimbabwe) and especially South Africa. The civil war between the government and its opponents, supported from abroad, lasted for sixteen years and led to the complete destabilisation of the country.
Then the whole situation in Southern Africa began to change: the cold war ended, Zimbabwe became independent and there was an end to Apartheid in South Africa where RENAMO had its bases. Moreover, a new constitution for Mozambique entered into effect in November 1990. It recognised the right of political parties to exist, favoured a free market economy, reaffirmed the fundamental rights and liberties of citizens, and introduced a clear separation of powers between the executive, legislative and judiciary.
Down the years, many attempts had been made to bring about peace negotiations, but they were finally realised with the help of the Catholic Church. Discussions were held in Rome under the auspices of the San Egidio Community. They lasted two years and on 4 October, 1992, resulted in a pact signed by President Joaquim Chissano and RENAMO's leader, Alfonso Dlakhama. The main provisions of the accord provided for immediate cessation of hostilities followed by a recall to barracks for all troops, the freeing of prisoners and the setting up of a new army of thirty thousand composed of men from both sides. General elections (parliamentary and presidential) were to be held within twelve months under international supervision.
It was soon evident that the period of transition foreseen was far too short and elections were postponed for a year. The United Nations sent a force of 8,000 troops (UNOMOZ), charged with the task of keeping the peace for two years, until the new government was installed. Its principal mission was to demobilise the 100,000 soldiers from both sides and collect their arms. The processus of democratisation was largely paid for by the UN. RENAMO received twenty million dollars to get organised as a political party. Other parties which were formed, also received a small allocation ($20,000).
To guarantee the success of the peace accord, the return of 1.5 million refugees who had fled to neighbouring countries, especially Malawi, had to be provided for. Those from Malawi used their own means to return. The others were the responsibility of the UNHCR, with the help of other organisations. A programme of clearing mines was also organised. (Estimates for the number of land mines spread over the whole country vary between 0.5 and 1.5 million. About 11,000 per year are still being defused).
Elections were finally held from 27 to 29 October 1994 with a massive turnout of more than 80% of the electorate. In the parliamentary elections, FRELIMO gained 43.33% of the votes and 129 of the 250 seats in parliament. RENAMO got 37.78% and 112 seats. Of the smaller parties, only the Democratic Union reached the quota of 5% by getting nine seats. In the presidential elections, Chissano won with 53.33% of the votes in the first round against 37.73% for Dlakhama.
President Chissano formed a government composed solely of FRELIMO members, in spite of the insistence of the donor countries to form a government of national unity. When UNOMOZ left the country in February 1995, peace still held, though the atmosphere was tense.
That the peace was holding was perhaps the greatest "miracle", due in the first place to the two leaders of the large parties who had decided to rely on democracy.
When the peace accord was signed, Mozambique was in a disastrous situation, war having literally devastated the infrastructure of the country. RENAMO which had already forsaken its old socialist dogmas, chose to adopt a free market economy. President Chissano had no other option: he had to have recourse to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and international donors. Today, the accumulated foreign debt is equal to four times its Gross National Product (GNP) and thirteen times its export revenues. In spite of that, the World Bank and the IMF already considers Mozambique as a model of economic structural adjustment.
Political stability has also reached a degree beyond most peoples expectations. Parliament functions better than expected. FRELIMO has gradually promoted younger and more technically qualified members. RENAMO has refrained from using threats of a return to armed force.
Peace and the new political system has caused a relaunch of the economy in Mozambique, which has seen a 6% annual increase. But the country is seriously short of savings and technical know-how. Massive investment is needed to reconstruct the economic and social infrastructure. The country is inordinately dependent on foreign aid and investment. Since 1990, it has been receiving about a billion dollars of aid annually. For how much longer can this continue?
On the financial side, Mozambique is well placed to become one of the first beneficiaries of an initiative of the World Bank and of the IMF to reduce the debt of "Highly Indebted Poor Countries". Already on 13 August 1997, the United States and Mozambique signed an agreement providing for the rescinding of 8 million dollars of the debt owed by Mozambique to the United States.
The World Bank and the IMF say that their reforms are having an effect. The annual inflation rate of 47% between 1991 and 1995, has fallen to 16.6% last year, and it is hoped that in 1997 it will not be higher than 10%.
At the moment, exports are restricted principally to fish (especially prawns) and agricultural produce (cotton, cashew nuts, wood, sugar cane and copra). However some large projects are being planned.
The Cahora Bassa Hhydroelectric Dam, planned, financed and built by Portugal in the seventies, was never put into operation because of the civil war. Work undertaken in 1992 has brought it back into production. It is foreseen that the greater part of its output of 200 megawatts, will be exported to South Africa and Zimbabwe. This should produce an annual revenue of about 100 million dollars from 1998 on. The building of a second dam is already being planned.
As far as the natural gas from Pande is concerned, the projected revenue will reach 75 million dollars by the year 2000, and 200 million by 2004.
Another large project is the "Maputo Corridor" which should provide economic takeoff for Mozambique. It is a question of a corridor for transport and investments, joining Maputo and Johannesburg, the economic heartland of South Africa, only 550 km away. In May 1997, the Mozambique and South African governments appointed a contractor to build a motorway between the two countries. The corridor should provide an outlet for South African exports which are hampered by congestion of its own ports, and could attract between 3 and 5 billion dollars worth of investments to Mozambique.
In spite of all that, agricultural development remains the first priority. Otherwise there is a risk that there will be development enclaves (especially round Maputo) in the midst of a marginalised rural population. Tillers of the soil represent 83% of the population. Two-thirds of them live in poverty. 67% of people over fifteen years of age are illiterate. Besides, the takeoff of the rural economy, presupposes a good infrastructure in roads, markets and credit facilities. Still Mozambique has possibilities. 45% of the land is suitable for agriculture but only 4% is actually used.
After the parliamentary and presidential elections in 1994, local elections will be a good test of a still fragile democracy in Mozambique. The deep rooted distrust between the two main parties remains, but both seem to be convinced that there is no other way out.
Local elections were initially foreseen for the end of 1995, but for technical reasons they were postponed until November 1997. They have been postponed yet again, and May 1998 is given as the most probable date. Elections will be held in 33 cities and towns and 10 other regions.
Already RENAMO is accusing the government of selecting the regions which are most favourable to FRELIMO. However, if the trends established in 1994 hold, the opposition should win in towns like Beira, Chimolo, Dondo, Nacala and Angoche. Mr. Dlakhama declares that he is still confident.
RENAMO is also complaining that it has not as much financial and other resources as FRELIMO. But without a doubt, its major problem is to present a different ideology than the party in power. Mr. Dlakhama declares that his party fought for 16 years for democracy; but this is now firmly established in the country. He declares that RENAMO is the party of free enterprise; but FRELIMO has adopted the most complete programme of privatisation in Africa. Observers note that RENAMO seems to lack people of calibre, or simply competent people.
President Chissano is optimistic. His party is developing on the ground. He says: "The local elections are very important but it's just as important that responsible people are elected. If RENAMO candidates are elected and they are honest, there's no reason why we should not be able to work well together".
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NOTA - Main sources: "Mozambique", Novib, Netherlands, 1995 - "Mozambique", Vivant Univers, Belgium 1997 - "Mozambique", Financial Times Survey, U.K., 25 June 1997.
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