CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
by ANB-BIA, Brussels, April 1998
THEME = DOSSIER
The weather phenomenon known as "El Niño" seems to be
coming to an end.
But what has been its impact on Africa?
Without wishing to blame El Niño for all the bad weather which has hit that continent,
let's take a look at the situation in the various regions
"El Niño" (literally the "Boy Child", as in "Jesus", since its effects usually become apparent around Christmas time) is a weather phenomenon which is brought about when the usual pattern of westward trade winds over the Pacific Ocean changes direction. This means that an enormous mass of warm air which normally is to be found around the coastline of Australia, moves in the direction of the western coast of South America, where it evaporates and causes torrential rainfall. The sea currents also change direction and together with the fact that the warm air has changed direction, influences the weather patterns in many other parts of the world. There's nothing new in what's been happening in recent years: Carvings found on ancient monuments shows that the El Niño phenomenon has been affecting the Peruvian coastline for nigh on 4,000 years.
The magnitude of the El Niño weather phenomenon varies, likewise its periodicity - appearing more or less every five years but sometimes with shorter (2-3 years) or longer (7-10 years) intervals separating each occurrence. An El Niño which is very severe has a boomerang effect over most of the world, except for Europe. This happened in 1987 and in 1992. In 1972 the world price of wheat doubled. In 1982-1983 it caused torrential rainfall in the east of the United States, and severe drought in Africa and Indonesia; Australia experienced its most severe drought this century.
However, the 1997-1998 El Niño seems to have surpassed anything which has taken place before. According to the World Meterological Organisation, it's "the strongest we've ever recorded". This particular weather pattern first appeared in March 1997 and it is now slowly dying out, but its repercussions will continue until May 1998. It caused a whole series of major catastrophes - droughts, floods and storms right across the world. In the Americas - floods in the south-west of the United States, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chili. Recently there's been tornadoes in Florida and in the Caribbean. In Australia - drought and forest fires; in Asia: drought and forest fires in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand; and in Japan and in both North and South Korea - drought.
The long drought in southern
In a report published on 25 November 1997, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) pointed out that twenty African countries would be faced with a drastic fall in food because of adverse weather conditions, with civil strife also playing a significant role. The most seriously affected would be countries in East Africa, the Great Lakes Region and in Sierra Leone. In the beginning of 1997, a severe drought had substantially cut down the farming season in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Somalia and part of southern Ethiopia. Erratic rainfall then reduced the output in the main crops in certain countries, especially Tanzania and Uganda, which recorded a decline of 30% in the cereal harvest. Tanzania estimated that three million people would be faced with food shortages. In the Great Lakes Region, in spite of an easing in the refugee crisis, there were serious food shortages, caused by shifting populations, general insecurity and unfavourable weather conditions.
From October 1997, following an exceptional dry period, torrential rain, linked to El Niño, began to batter East Africa, causing enormous damage to property and thousands of deaths. The floods caused epidemics, especially cholera. On 24 January 1998, Médecins sans Frontières reported that there were 46,172 known cases of cholera in the seven countries of East Africa, of which 2,000 had proved mortal. This followed the floods and a consequent lack of hygiene. A group of meteorological experts, meeting in February, estimated there would be above- average rain over most of the area between March and May this year.
Kenya: Kenya is one of the most affected countries. In March 1997, the country suffered its severest drought for four years, threatening to decimate the livestock in the north-east of the country. Then at the end of October the same year, torrential rain fell over coastal areas, causing flooding, destroying houses, bridges, roads. Many people were killed. The whole region was declared a "Disaster Zone". The situation deteriorated again in November 1997 when the floods reached the north-east province. Here, thousands of people could not be reached and were threatened by famine. The region around Mombasa was also virtually cut-off. The refugee camps in the north-east were among the most affected, where 120,000 people were without shelter and threatened by famine and epidemics. In December 1997, the rains were said to be the heaviest for 40 years...and it continued to rain. Following on the floods, malnutrition and lack of clean drinking water, came epidemics. In January 1998, 5,000 deaths were reported, 450 of which were caused by Rift Valley Fever (a viral disease transmitted primarily by infected flies and other biting insects, and occasionally with the blood of body fluids of infected animals). In February 1998, there was an outbreak of malaria in the north-east. The number of deaths is not known but it must have been very high. For example, in the town of Wajir alone, the health services estimated 1,500 people had died. At the end of January 1998, the World Food Programme (WFP) organised an emergency relief operation for a million people isolated by floods in Kenya and Somalia.
Somalia: A similar food shortage situation occurred in Somalia at the beginning of 1997, caused by the poor harvest - the result of drought. At the beginning of November 1997, torrential rains caused flooding in the south of the country. Humanitarian organisations reckoned there were anything between 500 to 1,000 deaths. Hundreds of thousands of people were homeless, especially in the area along the Juba and Shebelle Rivers. This valley is considered to be the "granary" of Somalia, and here the crop losses were extremely heavy; likewise most of the seed stock was destroyed. Thousands of livestock died and there is a very real risk of famine in the coming months. Already in December 1997, 1,700 people were reported to have died, 230,000 displaced and losses in livestock were estimated at 30,000. A United Nations estimate, published at the beginning of January 1998, indicated that 1,855 people had died. There was an outbreak of cholera in Mogadishu (number of cases unknown), in Merce (400 cases) and in Kismayo.
Ethiopia: At the beginning of 1997 there had been a bad harvest because of drought. Then unusually heavy rains began in all zones of the country during the first weeks of October 1997 and continued until the end of November 1997. By the end of November 1997, 297 people were estimated to have died and 47,000 were displaced. In early January 1998, more than two million people living in the Amhara region needed food assistance because their crops had been destroyed - first of all by the drought then by the floods. In general, the heavy rains, which followed the erratic precipitation earlier in the season, coupled with a lower use of fertilizers, resulted in a one-quarter decline in the 1997 grain production from the record level of the previous year.
Uganda: A similar situation as in Somalia. In the early part of 1997 there was a drought which affected mostly the north and the east of the country. Then came torrential rain in the east resulting in floods and mudslides in November 1997. Bridges were destroyed and communications cut. A statement issued in early January 1998 says about one hundred people died and 150,000 were displaced because of the floods. Most of the crops were destroyed.
Tanzania: At the beginning of January 1998, the Minister of Agriculture let it be known that because of the heavy rainfall, food stocks had been considerably reduced and there was danger of famine. Flooding had paralysed the rail system which on 18 December 1997 had to suspend its regular service. On 11 February 1998, President Mpaka said that Tanzania needed more than 117 million dollars to repair the damage caused by three months of torrential rainfall - all the result of El Niño. 17 million to repair the roads, 64.5 million for housing, and 18 million to repair the rail system.
The food supply situation in the countries around the Great Lakes is likewise giving cause for anxiety, but here a major additional cause is the civil wars ravaging these countries. At the end of December 1997, torrential rains fell in Congo RDC and the River Congo overflowed its banks. Kisangani was mostly under water and citizens found themselves without drinking water and electricity. 200 people died from cholera.
The situation was not much better in Burundi where violent rainstorms destroyed part of the first crop in 1998. In February 1998, the following facts were noted: the price of foodstuffs had practically doubled - partly the result of the embargo placed on Burundi; seed stocks were low (which could have a negative impact on the next farming season).
Rwanda isn't in much better shape. By the end of October 1997, the rainy season had started four weeks late and it was clear the harvest wouldn't be up to much. In February 1998, agricultural products had shot up in price, mainly because of the insecure situation in the north, considered to be the country's main grain producing area.
El Niño's impact in Southern Africa where a similar drought to that in 1992 was expected, has not occurred. When El Niño was announced, the South African government asked the appropriate ministers in the Region to meet together and decide on regional contingency planning to offset the effects of a severe drought expected from November 1997 to March 1998. At the same time, the department of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) dealing with food stocks was reassuring - much more food was available now than during the 1991-1992 drought.
In fact, in 1997, there had been a satisfactory cereal harvest for most of Southern Africa, thanks to a good rainfall which allowed for an abundant irrigation of the land.
In early 1998, perspectives for the year remained uncertain, although, until now, El Niño's impact has been less than expected. It was thought that the rainfall for most of Southern Africa would be less than usual for the beginning of the year. In fact, in South Africa, the end-of-summer rains (from mid-January to March) were between 11%-46% above normal rainfall.
El Niño seems to have spared this part of Africa, although in 1997, most countries in North Africa were affected by unfavourable meteorological conditions. In February 1998, the FAO published a report which outlined the cereal situation in Africa covering the 1997 period. The reports indicates that Algeria's harvest had decreased by nearly three-quarters; Tunisia's by 61%; Morocco's by 60%. Only Egypt which can completely irrigate its crops, had a slightly better harvest in 1997 than in 1996.
The FAO's report notes that cereal production in West Africa varies from region to region. Global production for those countries influenced by the Sahara desert climate and physical features, was more or less similar to the preceding five years, although Guinea- Bissau, Mali, Niger and Chad had better than average harvests. Burkina Faso, Cape Vert, The Gambia, Mauritania and Senegal were below average.
El Niño seems to come in cycles. But in this present overall-view, we shouldn't forget Africa's permanent danger - that of desertification.
In October 1997, a meeting was held in Rome within the context of the Convention to Combat Desertification. Africa still has the doubtful privilege of coming first among those countries hit by the onslaught of desertification. Large areas of Africa are made up of desert or arid zones. 73% of cultivated arid land is more or less seriously eroded. According to the FAO, a third of Africa is under threat of being transformed into a desert if measures are not taken to stop this scourge.
It can't be denied that drought plays a major role in the whole question of desertification, but other major causes are: over- grazing, bad use of land, deforestation.
Each year, Africa's forests lose 3.7 million hectares of their area. Some experts say that forest clearing and desertification could result in all Africa's forests disappearing by the year 2050.
END
CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
PeaceLink 1998 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement