CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
by Ashley Green-Thompson, Pretoria, South Africa, May 1998
THEME = ELECTIONS
Countdown to the 1999 election
It is becoming almost a cliche to begin a reflection on South African politics with sport. But South Africans seem to live out their lives on the sports field, or at least in the environs of the sports stadium. This was true in April-May regarding rugby - long held as a bastion of Afrikaner nationalism and machismo.
Since the rugby team won the world cup in 1995, the sport has become a study in the difficulties of transformation. With the entire nation behind what was still a predominantly white sport, the opportunity for rugby to reflect the changing nature of South African society, beckoned. Development programmes in black townships were set up, but these flattered to deceive, as no major effort was visible in promoting the sport among black people. The head of the South Africa Rugby Football Union (SARFU), Dr Louis Luyt, lorded over the sport like the proverbial emperor, disregarding the increasing dissatisfaction with the pace of change in the administration of rugby. Allegations that Luyt was consolidating rugby as his personal fiefdom, led to the establishment of a Presidential Commission of Enquiry into the affairs of SARFU, which the Union blocked. A protracted legal battle culminated in President Mandela being summonsed to court to explain his decision, prompting further outrage. Threats of isolation from international rugby finally forced Luyt to resign, and an official apology from the Union to Mandela was issued.
Throughout the drama, support for the obstinate Luyt varied. A large number of white South Africans and elements of the traditional rugby establishment cried "foul" and "victimisation". Black South Africa and the newly non- racial sports governing bodies insisted on change, and the removal of the biggest obstacle to change - Louis Luyt.
This divide finds parallels in the broader political situation. Transformation of the legacy of apartheid is not going as well as many at the bottom end of the economic ladder would like. Those who have benefited from apartheid see transformation as a threat to their continued existence.
A common refrain is heard during assessments of the performance of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission - that beneficiaries of apartheid have not acknowledged their complicity in the past abuses and feel no need to make reparation. They blame the abuses on the few bad apples that carried out the killings and the torture. The flip side of this is, that the victims and survivors of apartheid abuses, have still not benefited from any reparation or restitution programme, and are increasingly angered by what they rightly perceive as double victimisation. Two years after the birth of the TRC, the process of reparations is only getting underway now.
It is within this broad context, that political parties have begun campaigning for the second democratic national election scheduled for 1999. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has been established, again with renowned Judge Johan Kriegler as Chair. With just over a year to go, the IEC has an inordinate amount of work to do. Judge Kriegler maintains they are on track; observers do not share his optimism. This election will differ from the liberation election of 1994, in that voters will be required to register and vote according to a voter's role. The process of registration has yet to begin. The IEC maintains that votes will be cast on the same day for national, provincial and local government, but common opinion among observers is, that local elections will be held at a later date. The amount of money available to make this election happen, is significantly less than 1994, but the demands for administrative accuracy and efficiency are greater. This will not be an emotional event where irregularities are forgiven. Instead, it must set in place a tradition and culture of free and fair elections, upon which the new democracy will be built.
A further danger to the success of the 1999 election, is a growing apathy among the electorate. This is due largely to a perceived, again correctly, lack of delivery on political promises. For most poor South Africans, not much has changed economically, and everyone knows that you cannot sleep in or eat the franchise. And yet this election marks the end of the government of national unity, a provision of the negotiated settlement of 1993. For the first time there will be genuine majority rule, with the majority party not obliged to enter into a coalition government as it does now.
It is this new situation that the African National Congress (ANC) seeks to exploit. It is looking to secure the two-thirds majority in parliament that would enable it to change the Constitution, and push through legislation that enhances the transformation process. Commentators agree that the general apathy will not significantly affect the ANC's share of the votes. That challenge is coming from another area. However, to achieve this ambitious target, a number of obstacles must be overcome.
The first lies in the economic policy that is vigorously pursued by the government. The Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy is a market-led plan, aimed at freeing the constraints on the market, encouraging foreign investment and wage restraint, in order to generate economic growth that will create employment. The ANC's allies, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP), have become increasingly vocal in their opposition to this plan. Statistics show that instead of GEAR meeting it's target of 250,000 new jobs in 1997, the economy in fact lost over 120,000 existing jobs. Cuts in public expenditure has seen fewer teachers in schools, old-age pensions for people over 65 being reduced, and welfare grants for children cut. Over the next three years, social expenditure will have been drastically reduced in the interests of fiscal discipline. It is these measures that are causing increasing dissension among the alliance partners. COSATU's two million strong membership, is a key element in the success of the ANC's election bid.
The alliance is decades old and has survived the robust arena of transition politics. But clear policy differences exist, and the contradiction of a trade union in alliance with a governing party that is trying to liberalise the economy, must come to the fore. It is dangerous to predict any split in the alliance, but keeping it intact in the face of such fundamental policy divergence, will be a notable achievement.
Furthermore the ANC branch structures are generally weak, and this places even more reliance on the grassroots organisational strength of the trade union movement.
While these tensions play themselves out internally, the breakaway party of former National Party light, Roelf Meyer, and former ANC leader, Bantu Holomisa, is growing in stature and making inroads in traditional ANC strongholds. The United Democratic Movement (UDM) is still short on policy, but is trading well on the popularity of its co-founders. As yet untried in the litmus test of national and provincial elections, the UDM has acquitted itself well in local by-elections, winning a number of seats in local government.
However, besides having little by way of policy, the UDM is an amalgamation of disparate political persuasions, and its leadership's primary identifying characteristic is, that they are all dissidents from other political parties. Some have dubious records, with Sifiso Nkabinde of KwaZulu Natal, the most controversial. Charged and jailed for over a dozen counts of murder in the province, the former ANC leader and old regime spy, was recently acquitted on all charges amid allegations of shoddy police investigation. That Nkabinde is now free and still playing a prominent role in regional politics, bodes ill for prospects for peace in the area.
On a more constructive and positive note, the levels of violence throughout the troubled KwaZulu Natal, have markedly diminished over the past year. This in large part is due to efforts by the national and provincial leadership of both the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) of Mangosuthu Buthelezi. The rival parties have been engaged in high level peace talks, and have become quite cosy in running the affairs of the province. Speculation abounds about a possible merger between the two largest black political parties, even though a senior IFP member and national Cabinet Minister, was rapped over the knuckles by his party leadership for publicly calling for unity. A few years ago, such talk would have been regarded as fanciful speculation and the idle thoughts of dreamers, but these days, any attack on opposition parties in parliament by ANC members notably excludes the IFP. Much pain and suspicion will have to be overcome, however, if these two protagonists are to become one.
The official opposition in parliament and second largest political party in South Africa, continues to live its faceless existence. Since the replacement of F.W. De Klerk by the youthful but unexciting Marthinus van Schalkwyk as the leader of the National Party (NP), very little has happened to lift the profile of the old apartheid masters. The installation of the first coloured provincial premier in the NP stronghold of the Western Cape, did little to change perceptions that the NP had still not made the transition to the new South Africa. It is widely accepted that the NP will lose significantly in the 1999 election.
The Democratic Party (DP), acknowledged as the traditional party of big business, continues to ask the most questions in parliament. It has set itself up as the conscience of government, loudly trying to find corruption and mismanagement wherever it can. But like all other parties, its thunder has been stolen by the ANC in its economic policy direction.
No party in parliamentary politics differs fundamentally with the provisions of GEAR, and therefore very little by way of vibrant opposition exists. The only real alternative voice can be heard from the trade unions and non-governmental and community-based organisations.
It is from this quarter that the most strident calls for a reassessment of GEAR's neo-liberal emphasis emerge. It is often these organisations that have most direct contact with poverty stricken communities. Increasingly, the war on poverty is their focus. Many of these activists remain loyal to the ANC as the only party capable of transforming South African society, but acknowledge and criticise the weaknesses in the party's approach to poverty eradication. It is here that the most vibrant and creative opposition politics is taking place.
The jury is still out on the value of multi-party democracy in Africa and South Africa. For the moment, it is a reality that must be, albeit at great financial expense. Yet the true life of this new democracy comes not from institutions and procedures. As in the fight against apartheid, the true spirit of democracy in South Africa, is found in the involvement of communities and their organisations in the rebuilding of the country. In a global environment hostile to radical thought and solutions, where the philosophy of free market capitalism reigns, South Africa still has dissidents and radicals and free thinkers. They are not to be found in the rigid and moribund political parties that make up the official opposition. Rather, they are in the branches and committees of the ruling party, and in the streets and townships where poverty bites hardest. Perhaps they are the hope that parliamentary democracy can be a vigorous proponent of change and transformation. This is the challenge that South Africa must meet if it is to truly liberate its people.
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CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
PeaceLink 1998 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement