CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
by Justin Mendy, Senegal, November 1998
THEME = CIVIL WAR
Political analysts had been predicting for a long time
that sooner or later, there would be an explosion in Guinea-Bissau.
But nobody could have possibly imagined what was going to happen
The events which have been unfolding in Guinea-Bissau are the result of a crisis which has been in the making for many years, both among the people and in the African Party for Independence in Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC - the party in power).
The PAIGC has experienced many splits. The first was in January 1973 when the party's founder, Amilcar Cabral was murdered in Conakry, Guinea. This was followed by a series of showdowns, of settling of scores, of "disappearances" within party ranks. Note should be made of Prime Minister Francisco Mendès' ("Chico-Té) so-called fatal "accident" towards the end of 1970.
On the night of 14 November 1980, Joao Bernardo Vieira ("Nino") overthrew President Luiz Cabral (brother of Amilcar Cabral) and proclaimed himself President. He has remained in office ever since.
Then came a period of calm and even of enthusiasm for the new regime. Only to be followed by a great deal of agitation plus a number of accusations (true or false) of coups or attempted coups. Prime Minister Victor Saude Maria was sacked; the popular first Vice-President and Minister of Justice Paulo Correia was executed in spite of international appeals (including from Pope John Paul II) that his life should be speared.
Exiles, expulsions, forced resignations from the party in power, on the one hand; on the other, calls for more democracy and participation in government - these were all part of Guinea- Bissau's political scene, rapidly becoming more and more violent and well on the way to disaster.
In August 1994, Vieira narrowly won the presidential elections by gaining 52% of the vote. Three months after the parliamentary elections, Manuel Saturnino Da Costa was appointed Prime Minister, but it hadn't been all plain sailing. It took two votes among the party in power, for their national secretary (Da Costa) to get the appointment.
Rivalry within the government and the party has continued. Especially deep-rooted were differences between supporters of President "Nino" and those of Prime Minister Da Costa, (both members of the same party!). Matters came to a head in March 1997, when Da Costa was sacked and Carlos Correira was appointed in his place. Da Costa's position as party secretary- general was abolished during the May 1998 party congress (although he still remains number two in the party hierarchy, coming after the President).
While all this was taking place, Senegal was putting pressure on Guinea-Bissau to stop supplying arms to the separatists belonging to the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC), fighting for independence from Senegal. This created problems between Guinea-Bissau's political leadership and the Army Chief-of-Staff, Ansumane Mane. (Links between Guinea-Bissau's soldiers and the Casamance people remain strong). So much so, that Brigadier Mane was dismissed from his functions as Army Chief-Of-Staff on 6 June 1998, having been suspended from duty more than four months previously.
Added to the already existing political-military crisis, came ever- increasing economic-social tension. Mr Fafali Kondano, a research officer at the National Institute of Economic and Planning Research, puts it this way: "Look what's been happening: salaries can only be described as "laughable" vis à vis the high cost of living; whole sections of Guinea- Bissau's population are growing poorer and poorer by the day; any efforts made for economic development are doomed to stagnation. How can this be otherwise seeing there is nothing to spark any confidence among prospective investors?"
All this was taking place in a climate of scandalous differences between the "haves" and the "have-nots". Everybody had to look for ways and means to make ends meet. This explains why the mutiny met with some success both among former combatants and those military on active service. There was also great sympathy among the general population for the army mutineers in spite of the bombardments and the necessary evacuation of the civilian population from the capital, Bissau. And the Opposition? They said nothing. All of which gave rise to the hope that the PAIGC was hell-bent on its own destruction.
What at first appeared to be a simple police action by the Senegalese army to help President Vieira, soon turned into a veritable war situation. Now, the Economic Community of West African States and the Community of Portuguese-Speaking countries has persuaded the Guinea-Bissau government and its rebellious army to enter into negotiations - five months after the outbreak of hostilities.
END
CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
PeaceLink 1998 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement