CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
by ANB-BIA, Brussels, January 1999
THEME = DEMOCRACY
Nigeria has experienced many years of military dictatorship,
but with General Abacha's death, the country will return
to civilian rule on 29 May 1999.
The following is a short overview of Nigeria's political history
and of recent developments
Events in Nigeria are of importance for the whole of Africa. Why? Because it is one of Africa's largest countries in both area and population - one African out of six is a Nigerian national. It is also a rich country being Africa's biggest oil producer, and it plays a major role in West Africa. (Nigeria commands the military forces of the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG).
Since independence, Nigeria has faced enormous difficulties. Britain merged the Islamic north with the mainly Christian south, causing considerable ethnic and religious tensions. Corruption soared. Oil discoveries generated enormous riches but very little development. Nigeria became independent in 1960, but has had a civilian government for scarcely seven years out of the forty years of independence. Once Nigeria's new leaders are elected, they will be faced with an immense task.
Nigeria is 923,768 sq.km in area with a population of some 115 million inhabitants (1996 figures). 40% of the people live in towns.
Nigeria has a multiplicity of various ethnic groups. Indeed, Professor Onigu Orite says there are at least 374 ethnic groups in the country, the most important of them being the Hausa (in the north), the Yoruba (in the south-west) and the Ibo (in the south- east). The 1963 population census indicated the following percentages: Hausa 21%, Yoruba 20%, Ibo 17%, Fulani (Peulh) 9%, Kanuri 4%, Ibibio 4%, Tiv 3% and Ijaw 2%; the Nupe, Edo and Annang groups together represent another 4%; the remainder are a myriad of small ethnic groups.
The northern and southern parts of today's Nigeria developed separately over the centuries. Along the northern frontier bordering with the Sahara desert, people have close and long- standing commercial and cultural links with the Arab world. They converted to Islam way back in the 11th Century and had very little contact with the people living in Nigeria's southern forest areas. The southerners, for their part, developed their own kingdoms and cultures, and from the 15th century onwards, fell under the influence of European traders along the coast.
The slave trade was disastrous for Nigeria. In the 19th Century alone, 800,000 slaves are believed to have been shipped from the Niger Delta ports and other raids came from the north. Central Nigeria was depopulated, local communities disrupted and relations between the various ethnic groups deteriorated rapidly.
Colonial rule brought together the various countries and regions of modern Nigeria. Most of the country was conquered by the British during the second half of the 19th Century. It was first of all divided into several "protectorates". In 1914 these were united under the name of "The Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria". The western part of the German colony of Cameroon was added in 1922.
The northern and southern parts of Nigeria had little in common. Trade and Christian missions had transformed society along the coast; people no longer thought in terms of the tribe and belonging o a community; rather, they began to look to their own immediate needs and how to ensure their own well-being. In other words, a whole new atmosphere was developing. The urban population was growing and the economy was prospering.
In the north, however, contacts with Europeans were scarce and Christianity had little chance to develop when faced with Islam in a feudal society. On the other hand, trans-Saharan trade dropped to zero and Northern Nigeria had little to offer for trade with Europe. Also, education had great difficulty in getting off the ground. It was only in 1951 that the first student from Northern Nigeria graduated from university.
British government and administrative policy was not to dissolve traditional political structures, but rather to rule through the aristocracy. It was this idea that lay at the heart of the concept of "indirect rule". In 1947, they set up a Federal State with three Regional Assemblies, one in the North (mainly Muslim and Hausa-Fulani), one in the East (Catholic and Ibo) and one in the West (partly Anglican and Muslim, and mainly Yoruba). It is most important to recognise the significance of these Assemblies, for they halted the previous trend towards unified government, and provided the institutional support for ethnic politics. The New Constitution of 1951 set up a House of Representatives and a Council of Ministers at the centre and gave considerable powers to the regional Assemblies. Under this Constitution, the first nationwide elections were held in 1952. After a series of constitutional conferences, it was decided that a number of government bodies (including the civil service, the judiciary and the marketing boards) should be regionalised. The result was, that as independence drew closer, Nigeria was effectively three nations, politically and economically. Federal elections were held in 1959 which confirmed the separation of the regions. Independence came on 1 October 1960.
Independent Nigeria started off with a civilian government for six years. But very soon, Nigeria's politicians began to show their true hand and politics became a dirty word. Politics became a means to acquire economic power and everyone did his best to get what he could for his own ethnic group. Corruption invaded the whole of public life, including political campaigns. Growing social inequality sparked off strikes and even a peasant uprising in Yoruba country. This explosive situation led to new political alliances and to a new regional election in the Western region held in an atmosphere of a total breakdown of law and order. Nigeria was heading down the road to total chaos.
Then followed a whole series of coup d'etats and military regimes. An attempted a coup d'etat by a group of army majors on 15 January 1966, failed in that the head of the army, General Ironsi (an Ibo), was able to rally the army and defeat the attempt. What was left of the cabinet then decided to hand over power to General Ironsi. He suppressed the Federal State and set up a central government, but he was lacking support to rule the country. Six months later, he was killed in a coup masterminded by a group of northern officers. Lt. Col. Yakubu Gowon (later General), the army Chief-of-Staff, a Christian officer from a minority group in the north, was then asked to head the government. In 1967, Gowan restored the Federal State.
After many years of frustration, the Hausa-Fulani group wanted to break what they felt to be southern domination. Pogroms against the Ibo resulted in thousands being killed and almost one million Ibo had to flee from their own area. When Gowon attempted to break Ibo nationalism by creating eight new states (especially by depriving the Ibo of the oil field region), General Ojukwu, the military Governor of the East, proclaimed the independence of the "Republic of Biafra" on 30 May 1967. The Biafran war was to last for over two years and there were countless deaths. It officially ended on 12 January 1970 in a peaceful reconciliation that has virtually no precedent in the history of civil wars. Iboland was re-named the East Central State and rejoined the Federal State, which by now numbered twelve states.
The war confirmed the military's political supremacy. The army now numbered 250,000 soldiers and senior officers did their very best to ensure things remained as they were. In 1973, oil prices rose which resulted in a substantial income for the Treasury, the military and a small group of businessmen. Centralisation grew even stronger to the detriment of the Federal States which saw their own power being eroded. Increasing amounts of available money meant the rich were getting even richer, and the poor even poorer. Basic goods shot up in price making life impossible for the ordinary citizen. There was no attempt to even-out the economy in spite of huge resources, and this even further increased the country's dependence on imports from abroad.
On 29 July 1979, General Gowon was overthrown in a peaceful coup d'etat and was replaced by General Murtala Muhammad. General Muhammad launched a "clean up" exercise in the civil service, sacking thousands of corrupt civil servants. This did nothing to attract people into public service (badly paid in any case). Young qualified graduates then turned to the private sector. Muhammad established another seven States, but reduced the powers held by the State Governors. He also announced that the military would hand over power to civilian rule in 1979. But at the hight of his popularity, he was murdered on 13th February 1976 by a group of discontented officers in an attempted coup.
General Obasanjo, the army' second-in-command, then took over and confirmed the promise to hold general elections. He approved a new Constitution, based on a presidential system (as in the United States). Provision was made for a powerful president elected by popular vote, together with a vice-president as running mate. Provision was also made for two legislative chambers - a National Assembly and a Senate. Civil servants would change with the president. However, the fact that the president could make his own appointees to the civil service, enhanced the danger of corruption in government circles.
In 1979, the country returned to civilian rule. Alhaji Shehu Shagari, the National Party of Nigeria's (NPN) candidate, was elected President. The NPN was strongly represented in Kaduna (in the north), with a strong backing of some traditional chiefs and tradesmen - popularly known as the "Kaduna Mafia".
The new democracy got off to a bad start. Corruption seemed to be ever on the increase. Shagari tried in vain to limit the powers of the various States; governors had been elected and were determined to fight for their prerogatives. In 1981, the price of oil crashed. The government was determined to have the appearance of being "popular" with the people and ended up by incurring massive debts. Shagari, however, succeeded in getting himself re- elected in 1983, but turning a blind eye to Nigeria's financial difficulties, he was overthrown by yet another coup.
On 31 December 1983, the army once again seized power.
Major-General Muhammadu Buhari emerged as the new military leader. He instituted a strong military regime, changed the Constitution and ruled by decree. He prohibited political parties, restricted press freedom and launched a series of court cases against a number of state officials accused of corruption under the civilian regime; he also froze bank accounts, opened negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and imposed measures which did nothing to endear him to the people.
Buhari was overthrown on 27 August 1985 by Major-General Ibrahim Babangida, Army Chief-of-Staff, who chose more flexible policies, putting an end to negotiations with the IMF and advocating "self-reliance". He became popular by creating even more States (in multiplying the number of States, he was favouring certain ethnic groups). In 1989, political parties were once again permitted. Nearly sixty asked to be officially registered but all were refused. Why? Because the new Constitution would only permit two legally registered parties: the National Republican Convention (NRC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Their political programmes were drawn up by the military. These parties were, in principle, supposed to give rise to a new type of leader but, in reality, they were the stepping stones for some multi-millionaires to assume power. In 1991, the NRC won most of the State-Governorships and in 1992, the SDP won most seats in the federal parliament.
The presidential election was repeatedly postponed and finally took place on 12 June 1993. The winner seemed to be the SDP's candidate, Moshood Abiola, a Yoruba Muslim. But before all the votes had been counted, Babangida cancelled the election results. The army made certain that all protests were stifled.
Babangida resigned on 27 August and handed over to an interim President, Ernest Shonekan, who was supposed to lead the country to new elections. But on 17 November 1993, yet another coup brought Defence Minister General Sani Abacha to power.
Abacha set up a draconian military regime and arrogated to himself ever-increasing absolute powers. He started by abolishing all democratic institutions, including the Senate, the National Assembly, State Councils and all political parties. He once again introduced a military government with a civilian cabinet at federal level and military governors in all states. He went back on his promises to return to civilian rule.
As for Moshood Abiola, in 1994, on the anniversary of his election, he proclaimed himself president. He was immediately arrested; this sparked off strong protests from the pro-democracy forces. A strike of the Oil Workers Union lasted for two months, but was finally broken. Pro-democracy activists were arrested, opposition newspapers closed down, the army purged of all personnel suspected of opposing the regime, and all civilians in the government were dismissed.
While all this was taking place, there was trouble with the Ogoni people, who were protesting against the pollution of their region by the oil companies. They said they were suffering from the pollution and yet, at the same time, their people were getting nothing from the oil production. This ended up with the arrest of their leader, Ken Saro Wiwa, and several other activists. They were sentenced to death and executed on 11 November 1995, in spite of international protests. Nigeria was then expelled from the Commonwealth.
Abacha's dictatorial regime resulted in Nigeria's increasing isolation from the international community. He eventually decided to organise elections and pledged to hand over power to the civilian population on 1 October 1998. Five political parties were authorised. They all ended up by putting forward Abacha as their candidate for the presidency. On 8 June 1998, General Abacha died of a heart attack. General Abdusalam Abubakar took over and immediately promised a return to civilian rule. Moshood Abiola, who was about to be released, died in prison on 7 July 1998.
Nigeria's stormy political history should not make us forget that this is potentially, one of Africa's richest countries. It has the most important oil reserves on the African continent and is one of the most important members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It has coal, iron, uranium, lead, tin and other minerals. Diverse forms of agriculture are possible, and yet...it's precisely these very riches, especially profits from oil, which have led Nigeria down the road to ruin.
Agriculture: In the sixties, at the beginning of Independence, agriculture was still by far the most important section of the economy. Products for exports included the following: cotton and ground-nuts (grown in the north); cocoa (grown in the south-west); palm oil and rubber (from the south- east). Nigeria was the biggest producer of palm oil in the world and came second after Ghana for cocoa.
But the coming of the oil wealth drove agriculture into decline, encouraged the drift of the active younger generation into the cities and dislocated the old systems of production. Food production at home was drastically reduced and food had increasingly to be imported in order to satisfy the needs of the growing population in the towns. Successive governments promised ambitious initiatives to boost agricultural production, but with little effect.
For most people these days, agriculture still represents their main source of income. Farms are mostly self-supporting family small- holdings. Their relative prosperity depends on the nature of the soil, access to markets and the farmers' own management and initiative capacity. A few farmers have been enabled by the Government to develop palm oil produce, rubber, cotton or maize plantations which often depend on state subsidies.
Mining and industry: The oil boom also brought about a decline of tin mines in the north and coal mines in the Ibo country. So far, uranium has not been extracted and the same goes for huge iron reserves, except for one mine in Itakpe.
In spite of hopes for rapid industrial development, this section has remained relatively poor, considering the size and the population of the country. New industries often depend on imported raw materials. In 1991, industry's share in the Gross National Product (GNP) only represented 8.3%, which was only slightly more than the 7.2% in 1972. Most factories only work at one-third of their capacity.
Oil: Oil represents Nigeria's biggest wealth potential, with more than 90% of the GNP. Initial exploration and development resulted in a start in production by 1956. Production peaked from the end of the civil war. Already in 1970, Nigeria produced over one million barrels a day. In 1971, Nigeria joined OPEC and a Nigerian National Oil Corporation (NNOC) was formed. In 1977, a merger of the NNOC with the Ministry of Petroleum Resources led to the establishment of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which has wide responsibility in the oil industry and a considerable equity participation in all the oil companies.
Nigeria thus held a leading economic position in sub-Saharan countries. Money flowed in. The GNP rose from 3.2 billion dollars in 1960 to 75.2 billion in 1973. But this only contributed to widening the gap between the rich and the poor.
Difficulties started in 1981, because there was over-production of oil in the world and in 1986, oil prices fell drastically. Nigeria had increasing difficulties in paying for its imports and, as the country almost entirely depended on its income from oil, budget deficits accumulated.
In spite of this, income from oil remains considerable! Today, Nigeria exports over 2 million barrels a day. At the lowest price of 10 dollars a barrel, this represents an amount of 20 million dollars a day. The government gets 70% but apparently the military corners the biggest part of it. Capital evasion continues. Corruption is still rampant...
Then there's the struggle of small ethnic groups living in the oil regions of the Niger Delta, who complain that their land is totally deteriorating because of the petroleum industry, whereas their people receive no benefit at all from this "manna". The Ogoni people were the first in the front line of the ecological battle. A battle which ended with the arrest and eventual execution of their leader, Ken Saro Wiwa, in 1995. Today, it's the Ijaws who are leading the attacks on oil installations, regularly causing extensive damage and loss of production.
Strange to relate: Nigeria, sixth in importance among OPEC countries, is today short of fuel. The country's four poorly maintained refineries are no longer able to produce minimum requirements. Also, the low cost of Nigerian fuel is the reason why it is smuggled out of the country in great quantities to neighbouring countries.
For many years, Nigeria was listed as an "average rich country". Now it is again on the list of the 20 poorest countries in the world. Its external debt is calculated at 34 billion dollars.
General Abdusalam Abubakar, the Armed Forces Chief-of-Staff, took over the very night Sani Abacha died on 8 June 1998. He immediately declared that he would respect the return to civilian rule and that he would pursue the social and economic transition programme already launched. After only a short time in power, he started releasing groups of political prisoners. Moshood Abiola, who was about to be released, died in prison. This obviously ended the Opposition's calls that Abiola was the legal president of Nigeria, and as such, should take up his Office.
In August 1998, Abubakar set up a new government composed mainly of technocrats and announced the election programme: local elections in December 1998; regional elections (state governments) in January 1999; parliamentary elections on 20 February 1999; presidential election on the 27 February 1999. A civilian government will take over by 29 May 1999.
New political parties were formed, with the injunction that no ethnical, religious or regional symbols were to be used, and that they had to be represented in at least 24 out of the 36 States of the federation. 26 political parties/groupings eventually applied for registration - only 9 received legal recognition as meeting the set criteria. Moreover, each political party/grouping would have to obtain at least 5% of the votes cast in 24 States in the first round of elections - the local elections, in order to take part in the next round - the regional (State) elections.
So, what happened? Only three parties qualified for the State elections from the local elections held on 5 December 1998. They were: the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP), numerically the strongest of the three; the Alliance for Democracy (AD) with its main base in the Yoruba country; the All People's Party (APP) which came third.
Then came the regional (state) elections on 9 January 1999. Voters had to elect State Governors and State Assemblies. The PDP won 20 out of 35 state governorships; the APP won 9; the AD 6. In Bayelsa State, in the Delta Region, the vote was postponed because of recent unrest. For the 27 February presidential election, the very popular former president, Olesun Obasanjo, is the PDP's candidate. Faced with this formidable opponent, the APP and the AD have agreed to present one common candidate.
In the meantime, General Abubakar has also launched debates on a new Constitution by creating an ad hoc committee and calling on all Nigerians to take part in the consultations. He most particularly wants to know what they think about the concept of a "rotating presidency" among the country's three main regions.
The government has also taken up the problem of embezzlement of state funds under the previous regime. In November 1998, the authorities announced that they had recuperated more than 750 million dollars from family members of the former head of state, which had been diverted from public funds. Ismaila Gwarzo, Abacha's former security adviser, was accused of having stolen some 1.3 billion dollars from foreign exchange reserves. He admitted to possessing stolen public money amounting to 25 thousand dollars and 37 real estate properties.
All this enabled a start to be made on openings at an international level. The Commonwealth announced they would consider re-admitting Nigeria among its members, after the 1999 election. The European Union decided to lift part of the sanctions imposed on Nigeria since 1995.
Contacts were also resumed with the World Bank in order to draft a new economic programme. The government promised to liberalise the economy and to open up the main industrial enterprises to the private sector. Nigeria applied for a reduction of its external debt. Early in January this year, General Abubakar took a long-expected decision: the system of dual exchange rates was cancelled. Until now, this had given people in public office the possibility of buying dollars at about a quarter of their commercial value.
In 1998, the price of oil fell drastically and this has weighed heavily on Nigeria's financial situation. General Abubakar declared that this had already cost the country more than 2.3 billion dollars in 10 months. At the end of December 1998, the government announced it was unable to pay the civil servants their upgraded (in October 1998) salaries because the state treasury was empty. A time bomb is in the making for the new civilian administration!
Political analysts following the situation in Nigeria and its future, are watching and waiting!
On the one hand, they note the country's enormous possibilities. Writing in the French newspaper Le Monde (27 Nov 1998), Thomas Sotinel says: "Nigeria is an up-and-coming country. Its size and its rich natural and human resources always made it a "laboratory for modern Africa", sometimes for the best (with its literary and intellectual output, its numerous dynamic businessmen), but frequently for the worst. Nigeria has once again set out along the road to democracy, and has been given the possibility to reverse past failings and mistakes."
But there are many obstacles. The main one is the existing rampant corruption. The country was devastated by years of plundering, the previous regime being guilty of unprecedented looting. It is absolutely essential that the nation's political leaders understand they are but "caretakers" of the nation's wealth to be used for the common good. It is not their private property.
Nigeria's economic and social situation gives cause for concern. General Abubakar has made it clear that the present election process is but one part of the nation's needs: "Rigorous attention and determination must equally be given to the nation's economic situation and the restructuring of society". In spite of riches from oil, and precisely because this provides more than 90% of the country's income, present oil prices represent a terrible handicap. Approximately 35% of income initially budgeted for 1998 could not be found, and the government had to drastically reduce investment in a country where infrastructures are already in a poor state. There are alarming social differences among people. There's only a small group of extremely rich people, whereas the remainder are impoverished. Agriculture has been neglected. Salaries have been affected by the collapse of the Naira (the national currency).
Ethnic and regional tensions still exist. Since independence, the country was dominated by people coming from the Muslim north. Southerners, who are mostly Christian, are now hoping for a different power structure. In addition, the smaller ethnic groups (e.g. Ogoni and Ijaw) say they are regularly discriminated against, in spite of an increase in the number of states. Adding to these are the still existing religious tensions (Cf. "Nigeria - Religions and Churches, ANB-BIA, 15 Feb. 1998).
Northeners say they are not the ones responsible for the various coups d'etat and they are just as much victims as the southerners. The fact remains - northeners are in the majority in the army.
Northern politicians say they are quite willing to transfer power southwards. One northern politician puts it this way: "Nobody in the north is obsessed about northern leadership. I'm prepared to welcome a Nigerian President, whether he is from the south or the north. I'm more concerned with the way in which he carries out his job as President of Nigeria". The Yoruba, however, continue to call for a president coming from the south. This is seen to be but another aspect of tribalism.
But, one thing is clear. Both the new President and the new government will be faced with an immense task.
END
CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
PeaceLink 1999 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement