CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
by Martin Stevens, South Africa, May 1999
THEME = PERSONALITIES
Thabo Mbeki, is described as affable yet aloof, cordial yet enigmatic
Mbeki had been groomed in exile to take over as African National Congress (ANC) chief by its former president, Oliver Tambo, Nelson Mandela's closest friend and colleague in the struggle. He is also the son of another leading ANC figure, Govan Mbeki, which gives Thabo Mbeki the sort of liberation credentials that evidently carry weight in the organization and its affiliates.
Mbeki's strength, some would say, lies in the fact that he is not accountable to any single constituency within the ANC or the tripartite alliance with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU).
In 1995, Mbeki told one of South Africa's leading newspapers, The Star: "I don't have constituencies. This is a fortunate thing which has to do with the work I've had to do in the ANC for years, which covers all the elements of the struggle or diplomatic work, or building up the structures of the ANC.
Mbeki has always enjoyed the confidence of the diplomatic community. Most Western diplomats believe he has a firm grasp of issues. There has been a positive feedback from his trips to Europe and the United States to promote investment. "Indeed, without that investment", says economist Mike Elias, "the domestic hopes for South Africa, let alone its ambitions for the Southern African region, will count for little".
African diplomats have reason to expect a more pro-active foreign policy on the continent under a Mbeki government. The signs are good. South Africa's active engagement in the sub-region is largely attributed to him. Mbeki has moved to consolidate his position in the party. He and his deputy, Jacob Zuma, epitomise a combination of ANC exile tradition and pragmatic economic thinking.
With Mbeki's succession, there's unlikely to be a splintering of the alliance that forms the ANC (the Constitution prevents parliamentarians from breaking party ranks). Nevertheless, existing tensions, as well as ideological and personal ones, are likely to deepen. In the view of political analyst, Patrick Modise, "Mbeki, a seasoned political manipulator has managed to consolidate power by pulling together a diverse array of followers. His power-base includes some of the party's most sophisticated thinkers, business executives, labour unionists, militants, as well as current and former communists". Modise says: "In a deal reached last year, the South African Communist Party (SACP) effectively agreed to cease its criticism of economic policy, and in return was allowed a large measure of control over the ANC campaign, making sure that its candidates will be prominent as ever on the ANC list". Modise thinks this is no more than a truce for the duration of the election campaign.
Two factors are important for Mbeki: Firstly, personal contacts revolving more around compatibility with Mbeki's personal style than friendships. Secondly, balance - Mbeki has carefully constructed his circle to include representatives of all politically important factions - labour, business, women and youth. The undisciplined and the uncontrollable are left on the outside. It is no longer the SACP that offers a reservoir of discipline and focus within the ANC; that role has been grasped by Mbeki's inner circle. Both he and the SACP have to face the possibility, that once the election is over, there could be a showdown in their relationship.
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CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
PeaceLink 1999 - Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgement