CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
by J.-V. Ngoubangoyi, Congo-Brazza, February 2000
THEME = GEOPOLITICS
Every day, Jonas Savimbi's rebellion seems to be losing ground, so are we coming to the end of UNITA's rebellion? It's difficult to say for the moment. What seems sure, if one can believe the Media, is that UNITA's leader has fled from his traditional headquarters, Jamba, in the south-east of Angola. Strategic cities he's held for some time have all fallen in turn to the Angolan armed forces. UNITA's soldiers now only have one exit - Zambia - which has been the only country helping UNITA.
Since March 1998, both the UN and Angola have accused Jonas Savimbi's supporters of once again taking up arms within Angola, in clear violation of the Peace Agreements signed in Lusaka in 1994. In the beginning of August 1998, Angola decided to send its troops into Congo RDC to support President Laurent Désiré Kabila. This was because the Angolan government had quickly understood that those out to topple Kabila had UNITA's support. It was a question of hitting out from the rear at UNITA rebels with bases in Congo RDC . Dos Santos has dissolved his government and assembled a war cabinet which is to remain in office until final victory. Since then, arms mainly imported from Ukraine and Byelorussia, have been flooding into Angola.
Meanwhile, forced recruitment has been continuing in Angola's major urban centres controlled by the government. Moreover, Dos Santos is supported by the Western powers which, in the past, had actively supported Savimbi in his fight against Communism in central Africa. But once Kabila defeated Mobutu (Congo RDC), and Sassou defeated Lissouba (Congo-Brazza), Savimbi was deprived of his main supporters. Aubeville Camp, Bouenza region, in Congo- Brazza, was one of UNITA's main recruiting grounds where a number of young Congolese were recruited into UNITA's ranks.
Angola has also been multiplying its threats of military intervention against Zambia. The two countries haven't actually gone to war against each other, but it was only the intervention of the American Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, which prevented hostilities from breaking out.
Now let's take a look at Congo-Brazza: At one time, UNITA members were actively supporting the Ninjas militia of former prime minister Bernard Kolelas and the Cocoyes militia of former president Lissouba. But the fact that in recent months, there has been a rapprochement between Angola and both Congo's in the interest of bringing peace to the region, means that UNITA's opportunities for operating from both these countries has been drastically reduced. Jonas Savimbi was only too aware of what a peaceful settlement in the Pool, in Niari, Bouenza and Lekoumou (south-west Congo-Brazzaville), all of which were strongholds of Kolelas and former president Bernard Lissouba, would mean to him and UNITA. So, he did everything possible to support the various Congolese militia. One of UNITA's main objectives was to make it possible for its allies to seize the aerodromes in the south of Congo-Brazza, in particular Dolisie and Nkayi. It would have thus have had landing strips available to export diamonds from the areas it controlled in Angola, and to import weapons which his troops so badly needed.
But it was not to be! Congo-Brazza's former leaders were out of luck because Congo-Brazza's official armed forces have been able to occupy the whole of the national territory. This means "goodbye" to Jonas Savimbi and his UNITA, as far as Congo-Brazza is concerned. From now on, UNITA is now fighting with its back to the wall, under conditions all the more delicate since the international community wants an end to the fighting and has placed its bets on victory for Dos Santos.
UNITA has also made itself felt in Namibia, having chummed up with the Caprivi Liberation Army (Caprivi is a strip of territory some 500 km long and about 50 km wide, wedged in between Angola, Zambia and Botswana).
To stop Savimbi, Kabila, Dos Santos and Sassou have signed a defence agreement. This means that Angola has once again made its presence felt in Congo RDC and Congo-Brazza. Angola has also received Namibia's permission to use Namibian territory to attack Jamba from the south.
UNITA is both the main opposition party to President Dos Santos, and one of oldest and the most powerful guerrilla movements in the region. The Cold War period when UNITA could get the support of both the Western powers and the apartheid regime in South Africa against the pro-Soviet regime in Angola, have long gone. Even companies which bought diamonds for UNITA, such as De Beers (South Africa) have changed their tune. De Beers diamonds used to earn UNITA some US $760 million annually.
But UNITA still represents a serious threat to peace in Angola and central Africa. The more so, as it can still mobilize at least anything from 10,000-15,000 troops. Political observers say that once the war in Angola ends, tension will diminish in central Africa.
Last year, a senior official from the Pentagon, Roger Meece, who is in charge of the Africa Desk at the US State Department for Defence, visited Brazzaville. In a discrete but firm way, he underlined the United States' intention to support the efforts of the Congo-Brazza authorities to restore peace in their country. Angola and Congo-Brazza already have very close relations, so the United States' gesture has an obvious regional bios. Les Dépêches de Brazzaville which has close links with the government in Congo-Brazza, puts it this way: "Washington has every intention in the future to work for the stabilization of central Africa, by supporting legally-established governments and to refrain from supporting the rebellions which try to overthrow these governments. In such a context, it's obvious that Angola, now on centre stage, will be one of the main beneficiaries of this policy change".
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