CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
by Magari Mandebvu, Zimbabwe, February 2000
THEME = ELECTIONS
As the dust settles after Zimbabwe’s constitutional
referendum,
all parties are sizing up their chances for the next contest,
parliamentary elections scheduled for the second week of April
The referendum result must be seen as a setback for Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU(PF) party. They campaigned massively for acceptance of the draft new constitution as a test of loyalty to them, and they lost. As expected, the referendum vote went against them in all the urban areas. They were probably surprised that so many rural constituencies also rejected their draft. In all 63 out of 120 constituencies voted "No". With some exceptions, the highest turnouts were in the towns, where the margins against the draft constitution were large, while the margin in rural constituencies was narrow either way. If this result was translated into a parliamentary election, ZANU(PF) would end up with only 45% of the votes cast.
That does not mean, however, that they would lose the election. The elections will now be conducted under the constitution agreed at independence as amended 15 times since. This has a first-past-the- post, winner-takes-all constituency system of voting and also provides for the president to appoint, directly or indirectly 30 of the 150 Members of Parliament (MP)s.
The first-past-the-post system means that, to get a majority of the elected seats, one opposition party would need to pick up all the anti-ZANU(PF) votes. Ndabaningi Sithole's ZANU-Ndonga would presumably keep its tribal support, winning two seats. Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) can be expected to get most of the other opposition votes, but the existence of another dozen or so parties could alter the picture considerably. Splitting the opposition vote in a number of constituencies would favour ZANU(PF) and thus probably keep them in power. If MDC can form electoral alliances, ZANU(PF) could be deprived of a majority of the elected seats, but the ruling party have shown themselves experts at splitting the opposition.
But even if one party or an alliance of parties were to win the 63 seats that went against the government in the referendum, the president's power to appoint 30 MPs could still give his party an overall majority. In this event, we would have a ZANU(PF) government with little credibility. It is possible that, in this event, some of the 10 chiefs, elected by the Council of Chiefs, who are all appointed by the President, would switch sides, but they would not provide enough support for the party or alliance with majority voter support to form a government. MDC will need careful strategy if they are to unseat the present government. They will need to consider electoral alliances.
Parties that would merit consideration include ZANU-Ndonga and possibly, in Harare, Margaret Dongo's Zimbabwe Union of Democrats (ZUD) and in Matebeleland, Cont Mhlanga's Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU-2000). They will also need to win over more voters in the constituencies which showed themselves to be marginal in the referendum. This is more urgent because of the president's powers to appoint MPs. If ZANU(PF) still has the largest number, even short of a majority, of elected seats, there will more justification for them to form a government, assisted by the appointed members. This situation will keep people's attention on the issue of constitutional reform. That debate is not over.
Nobody is really happy with the existing constitution, so the debate will continue. It may be muted until after the election, but then, even if we have a ZANU(PF) government supported by less than half the electorate, agitation for change and for a more thorough consultation of the people than we saw in the run-up to the referendum, will continue. The flaws in the voting system have been highlighted. A majority of the people expressed a wish for the president's powers to be trimmed. They also wanted government to be more transparent and accountable to the people. Those wishes, expressed to the Commission that drafted the text that was submitted to referendum, but not included in the draft, will not be silenced. However the election goes, the constitutional debate will continue, and can only reach a satisfactory conclusion if ZANU(PF) at last admits that there are other players it must listen to and co-operate with.
END
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