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Côte d’Ivoire The 2nd Republic of violence? |
DEMOCRACY
After General Guei’s «electoral hold-up»
What was feared following the coup d’état on 24 December 1999, actually nearly happened in Côte d’Ivoire — a military takeover of power. In actual fact, General Robert Guei, leader of the junta, in the face of all opposition, not only put himself forward for the presidential elections on 22 October, but tried, openly and publicly, to effect an «electoral hold-up». He thus proved right, those who talked of an «electoral charade — a view held both nationally and internationally, especially by the United States, as well as the United Nations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which even suggested that the ballot be postponed, because of the ongoing tension. The military junta, that wanted to hold the elections in order to legitimise its power, rejected all these proposals.
Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential elections were thus viewed with considerable suspicion. If the military were in such a hurry to organise them, it was because they expected to win them by any means. They even started by removing potential candidates. In particular, these included former prime minister Alassane Dramane Ouattara («Ado») of the Rally of the Republicans (RDR), and all the candidates from the former party in power, the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire-African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA), including the deposed president Henri Konan Bédié, in exile in Paris, and Emile Constant Bombet, former interior minister, a man who had been running before the wind since the «Alassane Ouattara affair» and who was the official candidate of the PDCI-RDA .
Laurent Gbagbo, the only heavyweight
On the orders of the military authorities, the Supreme Court chose a total of five candidates (out of a total of 19). Of the five, only Laurent Gbagbo of the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) was a candidate of any weight, against General Guei. The latter certainly underestimated Laurent Gbagbo, the «historic leader of Côte d’Ivoire’s opposition», who had continued the fight throughout the country, at least officially, for ten years! The general was convinced of his own popularity, following the «popular success» of his tour around the country during the referendum campaign. He confused «support for the referendum» with «personal support». He did not even bother campaigning!
General Guei had had Laurent Gbagbo’s candidature accepted (despite his debatable eligibility, given his position as a state employee) in order to obtain backing for his own election. It was all-important that the elections appear credible in the eyes of the international community. The General never imagined that the FPI could beat him! The leader of the junta also wanted to reward the FPI‘s leader, the only one to have «collaborated» with the military, to the extent that some were speaking of a «pact» between the two men to share power: General Guei as president and Laurent Gbagbo as prime minister... It seems, however, that the FPI leader’s strategy was to appear «docile» to lull suspicion by the leader of the junta. This strategy paid off — not only was Gbagbo selected as candidate, but also he dealt the deathblow to the General at the last moment!
It should be said that Laurent Gbagbo was able to benefit from the general hostility, both national and international, towards Guei’s candidature. At a national level, the standing of the junta was at its lowest level at the time of the elections: Frustration arising from the unfair removal of the PDCI-RDA and RDR candidates, who called for a boycott of the ballot; and especially the people’s dissatisfaction, tired of the transitional period, military dictatorship, arbitrary arrests and torture, deterioration of the economic situation, suspension of foreign aid and all kinds of co-operation, the high cost of living, etc.
Sweeper swept aside
This situation favoured Laurent Gbagbo’s cause as he was considered to be «the hope of an entire people» (his campaign slogan) in ending the «military dictatorship». Thus on 22 October, General Guei, who found himself refused the nomination of the PDCI-RDA -– a party he had overthrown, and for which he wanted to make a takeover bid! -– finally stood as an independent and practically alone against the real «people’s candidate», Laurent Gbagbo.
On 24 October, the General, feeling his defeat to be imminent, did exactly what General Eyadéma did in 1993 in Togo, Maïnassara did in 1996 in Niger and Slobodan Milosevic did in Yugoslavia: he suspended the count, dissolved the National Electoral Commission (CNE), arrested its chair and other members, then had the interior minister declare the results in his favour: 52.72% of votes cast, against 41.02% for Laurent Gbagbo.
He had cause to regret his actions: As in Yugoslavia, the people went out into the streets, at the call of Gbagbo, both in Abidjan and across the country, to say «no» to an «electoral hold-up» by the General. The latter, after a few attempts at resistance, that cost several lives, especially among the demonstrators shot by soldiers, capitulated, as had Milosevic in Belgrade, and the socialist Laurent Gbagbo became Côte d’Ivoire’s new President. In the end, he won 59.36% of the votes cast, compared to 32.72 % for General Guei, who fled the country. Robert Guéi, who had come to «sweep clean Côte d’Ivoire, was himself swept away»!
What’s the result?
Now what can we say? It seems that the shadow of civil war has not yet been lifted, particularly because of Alassane Ouattara who refuses to recognise the ballot and the legitimacy of the elected President, under the pretext that his removal was unjust, and that with the double boycott of the PDCI-RDA and the RDR, 80% of the people of Côte d’Ivoire were disenfranchised. It should be noted that according to official figures, the turnout was 37.42 %, giving an abstention rate of 62.58 %. This is not catastrophic, compared to some elections in Africa and elsewhere.
«Ado» continues to demand the annulment of the ballot, supported by countries such as the United States, Germany and South Africa, and organisations such as the United States, the OAU and ECOWAS. French politicians were divided: while the socialists were for recognition of the result, Jacques Chirac’s RPR argued for a second ballot. From Paris, however, General Eyadéma, serving chairman of the OAU, asked for Côte d’Ivoire’s ballot to be accepted.
Ouattara himself, however, still needs to be convinced. Putting words into action, on 25 and 26 October, he sent his party members onto the streets to commit acts of vandalism in Abidjan, and in several towns across the country, especially places of worship (churches and mosques), smashing, pillaging, clashes with RDR and FPI activists and the forces of law and order, causing a great deal of damage. In particular, there were at least a hundred deaths, most members of Ado’s party. After the discovery of a grave containing the bodies of 50 people killed by shooting near Abidjan, the total number of deaths is still awaited. Is Côte d’Ivoire, a country well-known for its political stability and legendary peaceful society: «Peace is our second religion» said Houphouët-Boigny. It is now going to descend into violence and civil, ethnic and religious war? Given Ado’s determination the incursion of Muslims trained by the Idriss Koudouss’s National Islamic Council (CNI), this is to be feared.
We should remember that the roots of the political crisis in Côte d’Ivoire go back to the death of President Houphouët-Boigny in 1993. «Ado», who was then Prime Minister, disputed the application of Article 11 of the Constitution, making the president of the National Assembly the successor to the presidency of the Republic. The Muslims, however, after Houphouët-Boigny, (in the «centre» in politics and a Christian), whom they served loyally, wanted a northerner, and a Muslim, since Islam is the majority religious community in the country: 40% of the population.
Although this figure is not disputed, some people explain it as the result of mass immigration into Côte d’Ivoire, the largest contingent being Muslims from Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, etc. They have such a mutual solidarity that to these Muslims, «ivoirité», a concept intended to bring people of Côte d’Ivoire together, is actually divisive, creating two groups of Côte d’Ivoire’s inhabitants — those «by root» and those «by choice». This may be true. But the people of Côte d’Ivoire, worried by a level of immigration without comparison elsewhere -– up to 40 % of the population, some say! -– feel less and less secure, especially after the death of President Houphouët-Boigny whose strong personality provided a kind of safety valve.
Nowadays, the people of Côte d’Ivoire feel their democracy, their culture and their economy (helped by the crisis) to be under attack, as well as their political system, following the «Alassane Ouattara affair», the former prime minister being considered as being from Burkina Faso and thus a «foreign candidate». A «Patriotic Front» was even formed under the auspices of the FPI and the PDCI-RDA to counter the «foreigner»! But for the northern Islamic nationals, it is «"Ado" or no-one»! They congratulate themselves on having engineered the fall of Bédié (through the power of prayer) and of Guei, and they declare they will also have Gbagbo’s hide!
Alassane Ouattara, who is more considered, wants to take another route: To make the country ungovernable. This situation creates fears of civil war or chronic instability in Côte d’Ivoire. In any case, it all depends on the leader of the RDR, who after taking refuge in the German Embassy during the events of 25 and 26 October, finally met President Gbagbo and called for calm among his followers. But for how long will it last? Especially now that religion is involved, and fanaticism takes hold, and after «Ado»’s refusal to take part in «open government». Laurent Gbagbo is promising a «National Forum», along the lines of the «Truth and reconciliation Commission» in South Africa, for national reconciliation. We can but hope.
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