CONTENTS | ANB-BIA HOMEPAGE | WEEKLY NEWS
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Madagascar |
PEACE
The new government is hard pressed to revive the economy.
Madagascar is gradually sorting itself out. President Marc Ravalomanana is instituting changes within the state apparatus, to both the constitutional high court and the Senate.The new government is going all-out to be recognised and accepted by the international community. President Ravalomanana took part in the Johannesburg Earth Summit (at the beginning of September 2002); in the UN General Assembly in New York (September 2002) and recently in the Francophonie meeting in Lebanon, (18-20 October 2002). This seems to confirm that Madagascar is once again part of the international community.
There still remains Madagascar’s return to the African Union (AU), and this was discussed on 29 October in Pretoria, on the occasion of a mini-summit between South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki;, Zambia’s President Levy Mwanawasa; Mozambique’s Prime Minister Pascal Mocumbi, and President Marc Ravalomanana. By the end of this meeting, it was decided to include Madagascar’s membership of the African Union on the agenda of the AU‘s extraordinary conference in January 2003.
In short, the new government has achieved its goal on the diplomatic level. All Madagascar’s bilateral relations have been restored; Madagascar’s international donor partners have continued or have once again begun their respective activities, especially the World Bank, the IMF and the European Union.
Also, President Ravalomanana, following Madagascar’s Constitution to the letter (the Constitution had been revised by his predecessor Didier Ratsiraka), has been able to firmly establish himself as President. There’s been a complete re-shuffle at all levels of the country’s administration. At almost every cabinet meeting there’s a whole host of new appointments announced. Already within the government, there’s been two changes within two months. The new government is seeking political stability by choosing people it can rely on. The President has sacked 30 senators appointed by his predecessor and himself appointed the 30 senators he is allowed to, by the Constitution. He took a similar action vis à vis three of the nine constitutional High Court members.
All these people are politically «close» to the President or have been working with him for some time. The President has also recently changed his support association into a political party — the «Tiako i Madagasikra» i.e. «I love and care for Madagascar» Party (TIM). He’s even earned the respect of the armed forces, except for those extremist officers who supported the former president plus military officers who are presently in prison.
Reviving the economy
The hardest job of all has been to revive the economy. The present-day slogan is «fast and long-lasting development». We’ve yet to see this actually taking place. There have been several meetings between the President, ministers in charge of reviving the economy, and representatives of donor nations and organisations, and economists.
In July, a meeting took place in Paris of Madagascar’s special friends and financial backers — the «Friends of Madagascar». Funds granted within the framework of bilateral or multilateral relations are more than necessary to ensure the nations’s economic recovery in every sector.
Because of the crisis, 2002 is considered to be a non-starter as far as the economy is concerned. The growth rate was –10.7% and the inflation rate was 20%. And because the country’s economic life has made no headway, people’s lives have been affected negatively. Thousands have lost their jobs; many firms have gone bankrupt and, consequently, the State has had an enormous loss of earnings in revenues from taxes. The GDP recorded a fall of 10%.
Secondary industry has been most affected, with a reduction of –19.7%, including 22% in businesses working in the Free-Trade Industrial Zones. The tertiary sector also shows a –14.6% reduction. In fact, the crisis has hit especially businesses in the Free-Trade Industrial Zones, transport and tourism. 150,000 jobs have been lost in these sectors, mainly in the Free-Trade Industrial Zones. However, a number of companies involved in the Zones have already opened up again. Moreover, Madagascar has profited from the USA‘s African Growth And Opportunity Act (AGOA) initiative. (The Act offers tangible incentives for African countries to open their economies and build free markets). «Gloria Vanderbilt» is a major clothing company in the USA, and has just confirmed orders to the tune of approximately 50 million dollars for one year with five Free-Trade Zone companies. This will enable 5,000 jobs to be saved.
Finance
Another significant field in reviving the economy is the building, repairing and bringing up to standard of Madagascar’s trunk roads: of the country’s 31,000 km of roads, only 5,000 km are tarred. Others are in need of major maintenance. More than 90% of the financing for road work must come from external sources because local companies are only able to maintain some 1,600 km of roads each year.
The government counts on the 2,477 billion dollars promised by the «Friends of Madagascar». Economic observers say that if this money is released and used well, Madagascar’s precarious economic situation could quickly be put to rights, especially as the new government has its backers’ confidence. But for the moment, only the third distribution of the Second Structural Adjustment Credit facility, 32.9 million dollars, has been freed by the World Bank so that the State can pay its immediate bills.
Faced with this critical situation, questions can be asked concerning the various tax reductions recently announced by the President. Building materials have been the first to profit by these reductions; next there’s textile firms in the Free-Trade Zones, also haberdashery products and implements used in the clothing industry. With increased production possibilities, the President hopes to quickly reduce unemployment. But less taxation means less revenue for the State’s coffers. The President has also announced that the State is going to take over school admission fees in both state-run and private schools, plus the purchase of a presidential plane costing eleven million dollars. Previously, all these measurements were prohibited by the World Bank and the IMF, but according to a local daily newspaper, Madagascar’s financial backers are being somewhat lenient towards the new regime.
The World Bank has chosen a policy of continuity in spite of the crisis, but this has disrupted the implementation of its projects. For a number of years, it’s been noticed that Madagascar has been tardy in completing projects financed by the World Bank. Thus, instead of 150 million dollars per annum being used on World Bank projects, only 50 million dollars are used. Whereas a total of 500 million dollars is available. The World Bank is now demanding a total reorganization in order to guarantee the projects’ completion.
Three priorities have been laid down: Help the poor; get the private sector moving again; improve the public services, especially education and health. However, the World Bank has noticed that once grants for the projects have been completely allocated, they don’t seem to continue.
Democracy
Vis à vis politics — once the National Assembly was dissolved on 16 October, there seemed to be a singular lack of a constructive Opposition. However, former president Zafy Albert, from within the Committee for National Reconciliation, has dared to openly criticise the government, especially concerning the more or less arbitrary arrests taking place among those who were closely linked to the former regime — mainly people living along the coast. Zafy Albert says Marc Ravalomanana’s government is practising an exclusion policy or embarking on revenge tactics against the coastal people.
Only the Vanguard of the Malagasy Revolution Party (AREMA), founded by Didier Ratsiraka, is anything like an organised opposition. But, today, the party is having problems because its national secretary, Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, is obliged to remain in Paris. He’s been threatened with legal proceedings if he returns, just like his colleagues when they went back home.
Recently, in a press release, members of AREMA‘s National Office condemned an attempt to destabilize the party with the aim of destroying its chances of participating in the anticipated parliamentary elections scheduled for 15 December. For these elections, Ravalomanana’s new party, TIM, hopes to gain the majority of seats. The other political parties which supported Marc Ravalomanana during the recent struggle for power, would like to form themselves into one voting block for the elections, to ensure they have a parliamentary majority in the Lower House.
No official figures have been given concerning the number of political prisoners, but there are two of Didier Ratsiraka’s prime ministers, General Victor Ramahatra and Tantely Andrianarivo, military officers, former ministers, former governors of the autonomous provinces and senior officials in the former administration. Through its Senators, AREMA is calling for a general amnesty for all these people imprisoned following the crisis.
- Ramasiarisolo M. C., Madagascar, November 2002 — © Reproduction authorised, with usual acknowledgment