Text:
http://www.mg.co.za/mg/news/98nov1/13nov-congo.html
Rain helps rebels
gain on Kabila
The rainy season has helped the
DR-Congo rebels advance against an
enemy which cannot effectively deploy its
planes or tanks through mud and storms.
HOWARD BARRELL reports
RMED rebels are making skilful use
of rainy season in the jungles of the
Democratic Republic of Congo to
push back President Laurent Kabila's army
and allied Angolan, Namibian and
Zimbabwean forces, say intelligence sources
and security analysts.
The rebels, familiar with local conditions,
have been pressing forward mainly on foot in
the knowledge that low cloud makes it difficult for pro-government forces to use
air power effectively. Muddy conditions are also making a lot of the heavy
armour and tanks on the government side more of a liability than an asset.
The rebels' use of United States-made Iridium satellite telephones has given them a high degree of tactical flexibility — unmatched by Kabila's forces and those of his African allies. Iridium, the first low-orbit satellite communications system, has world coverage and operates much like a cellular network. Analysts attribute the rebels' seizure of the key town of Kindu in the north-east in October and subsequent successes to these innovative tactics.
The analysts say that the rebels and
their allies in Unita, which has long had
rear bases in Angola, are likely to have
Kabila dislodged by February next
year. "The rebel advance would be
much quicker if it was not the rainy
season now," says Jakkie Potgieter of
the Midrand-based Institute of Security
Studies.
The main rebel advance is on the
diamond-mining centre of Mbuji-Mayi
and the south-eastern province of
Katanga. But the rebels also have a
substantial force fighting its way down
the Congo River towards Kinshasa.
Meanwhile, Unita forces in bases
scattered on Congo territory along the
length of the country's southern border
with Angola have turned their attentions northwards and are now advancing
against Congo government positions. This means pro-Kabila forces are now under
attack from almost all directions.
The intelligence sources and analysts doubt that Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe have the capacity to mount the counter-offensive against rebels in the east of the country which they promised Kabila earlier this month.
"They can't use the air power they would need, they don't have the resources and equipment and they are suffering a high attritional casualty rate," one said.
The sources say that a high proportion of Namibian and Zimbabwean troops in particular, who are unfamiliar with the terrain, are contracting tropical diseases. About 100 of the 700 Namibian troops sent to Congo are now understood to be back in hospital in Namibia.
Namibia has so far deployed about half of its complement of 1 500 fully combat trained and equipped forces in Congo. Zimbabwe, with between 5 500 and 6 000 troops in Congo, has now deployed all its combat forces. -- Electronic Mail& Guardian, November 13, 1998.