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Mbeki initiative behind Congo ceasefire bid
January 22, 1999
By Howard Barrell
Johannesburg - South African diplomacy lay behind the potential breakthrough
achieved this week in attempts to end the war in the Democratic Republic of
Congo when five neighbouring countries involved in the fighting committed
themselves to signing a ceasefire agreement.
Ironically, however, South Africa was sidelined from the summit in the Namibian capital, Windhoek, on January 18 at which the advance was achieved. Only the leaders of Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe, which are backing President Laurent Kabila's Congo regime with troops on the ground, and Rwanda and Uganda, which are supporting the Congolese rebels, were=
invited.
A ceasefire agreement is due to be signed in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, soon.
Kabila and rebel leaders were also not at the Windhoek meeting and have responded cautiously to the agreement in principle to a ceasefire reached by those attending. But regional security experts believe there is a realistic prospect that the five foreign belligerents in the conflict may have sufficient clout to herd Kabila and his enemies into agreeing to a ceasefire.
Deputy President Thabo Mbeki secured the basis for the understanding shortly before Christmas when he set up a secret meeting between Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and Paul Kagame, the vice-president of Rwanda and the real power in that country.
Zimbabwe and Rwanda are the two main foreign belligerents in Congo. Zimbabwe has an estimated 5 000 troops there, while regional security analysts say Rwanda has committed its own troops to the war and is the main backer of the Congolese Rally for Democracy, the main rebel group.
A South African government representative said it would "not be right to say we were excluded from the Windhoek meeting". But, privately, South African officials say they were "surprised" by the summit in Namibia and would have expected to be there.
Following a meeting of foreign and defence ministers of the Southern African Development Community and others in Lusaka about a ceasefire late last week, about 16 heads of state or government had been expected to gather in the Zambian capital on January 16 or January 18 to take matters forward. But plans for that wider summit were scuttled during what officials say was a "difficult" ministerial meeting.
And the five foreign belligerents then surprised others with a plan for their own, exclusive meeting in Windhoek.
It is understood that Mbeki's diplomatic initiative started with the inaugural journey of South Africa's new Blue Train to Zimbabwe in mid-December, on which he was accompanied by various Southern African leaders and on which he was eventually joined by Mugabe.
On the train, Mugabe, under serious economic and domestic political pressures to extricate his country from its heavy commitment to the war in Congo, indicated a willingness to meet Kagame, widely seen as the key player on the rebels' side.
Mbeki then moved with a speed that surprised the Zimbabweans. Within days he was back in Zimbabwe on a secret trip, this time accompanied by=
Kagame.
Mugabe and Kagame met, so establishing the direct channels of communication and the basis for this week's Windhoek summit.
Mbeki's representative, Ronnie Momoepa, would not comment this week on the details of Mbeki's role in the Congo peace process apart from saying that he was "involved in a number of peace initiatives".
Mbeki is understood to have immediately followed up the Kagame/Mugabe meeting with a set of proposals that were circulated to the two African leaders and others. These proposals cover the terms of a ceasefire and troop standstill in Congo, a peacekeeping force made up of units from the various warring armies but under neutral foreign command, the terms of a final end to all hostilities and the creation of a forum of heads of state to oversee and guarantee the democratisation and reconstruction of Congo.
These proposals elaborate on an earlier Congo peace plan drawn up by Mbeki and presented by President Nelson Mandela to other African leaders in September last year.
South African officials refuse to be drawn publicly on the reasons for the sidelining of South Africa in Windhoek. But regional political and security analysts suggest a number of explanations. They say that the heads of state of a number of the belligerents feel uncomfortable about South Africa's keen awareness of their own and their families' business interests in Congo, and of how this might be affecting their decision- making on the war. They also suggest some heads of state resent Mbeki's ability to exercise intellectual and political leadership.
An additional factor in the belligerents wanting to meet alone in Windhoek, rather than in broader company in Lusaka, is that the Angolan government is deeply distrustful of President Frederick Chiluba and Zambia, whom they accuse of continuing to support Unita rebels.
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