Text:
http://www.mg.co.za/mg/news/98sep1/4sep-angola_congo.html
Congo war is really
about Angola
Increasingly the Congo war becomes a
second front for Angola's war against
Jonas Savimbi's Unita. CHRIS GORDON
reports
S the Angolan government ejected
Unita from the Government of
Popular Unity for "flagrant violations"
of the Lusaka peace accords and the
long-awaited split in Unita ranks became a
reality this week, it became increasingly clear
that the Angolan conflict is being fought out
in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as on home ground.
The latest moves signal the possibility of an escalation of the conflict in Angola as the government attempts to flush out the Unita die-hards who have joined forces with the rebels in Congo.
Unita ministers expelled from the government told a press conference in Luanda on Wednesday this week that officials and members of the rebel movement have decided to suspend Unita's Jonas Savimbi and his team from its leadership. The split could open the way for an all-out military assault on Unita.
Unita last week announced it also "has interests to defend" in Congo. These interests lie in its links to the old Mobutu Sese Seko regime — ex-Mobutu loyalists are said to be fighting alongside Unita with the Congo rebels. A friendly government in Congo would make it easier for Unita to evade diamond -trading sanctions.
Claims that Unita units have been
captured by the Angolan army at
Songololo, in western Congo, have not
yet been confirmed and Unita has so far
not commented.
Independent risk analysts for the region
and the Institute for Security Studies
have reported the establishment of new
Unita training bases in Congo this year.
There is no reason to doubt it has
troops in Congo and ambitions to
increase its logistical support there.
This helps explain the Angolan
government's decision to continue
military support to Congolese President
Laurent Kabila after the Angolan army
defeated the rebels in the west of the
country. João de Matos, commander in
chief of the Angolan army, announced
the decision to remain in Congo; most
analysts believed Angola would not
advance any deeper into Congo.
The decision to move east is likely to increase the pressure for negotiations. Angola has the most powerful army in the region, and undisputed mastery of the air space. It has committed elite troops, tanks, attack helicopters and reconaissance planes to the war in Congo, and in a battle is likely to defeat the rebel forces.
It will also drive a wedge between Unita in Angola and its links to the rebels. A military defeat of the rebel forces and the closing of Unita's bases would weaken Unita again, even if a decisive confrontation with Unita did not take place.
Inside Angola, the peace process now barely exists, despite the arrival of the new United Nations special representative to Angola, Issa Diallo, last week. Diallo, a Guinean diplomat, arrived during what the UN now describes as the worst crisis in the peace process. He has to meditate a peace process which Unita pays lip service to, but evades fulfilling.
After the Angolan government ejected Unita from the Government of Popular Unity, Jorge Valentim, reading a prepared statement, said Unita under the leadership of Savimbi has adopted a policy contrary to the interests of the movement and the Angolan people. The statement said a provisional leadership will be set up to direct the movement until the next Unita general congress, and it will continue implementing the Lusaka peace accords.
Other ministers present included Geronimo Ngongo, vice-minister of the interior; Junior João, vice-minister for social affairs; and Demosthenes Chilungitila, vice-minister for defence. Eugenio Manuvakola, who signed the 1994 Lusaka accords on behalf of the movement, was also present.
The split will enable the government to recognise the Unita political group in Luanda, while marginalising Savimbi in Bailondo.
Unita joined the Government of Popular Unity in April 1997 and had four ministries, seven vice-ministers and 70 deputies in Parliament.
General Horacio Junjuvili, who represents Unita in Luanda in the absence of Isias Samakuva, denied it has any men under arms — except for Savimbi's "presidential" bodyguard.
But the UN believes Unita has been misleading the international community — it believes the movement has an army about 30 000 strong. -- Electronic Mail& Guardian, September 4, 1998.