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http://www.mg.co.za/mg/news/98sep1/11sep-congo_uganda.html
Uganda's Angolan key to Congo
Uganda has proposed a separate deal with Angola: keep out of Congo, and we'll help you deal with Unita. CHRIS GORDON reports
GANDAN President Yoweri Museveni has proposed a separate deal to Angola's José
Eduardo dos Santos to stand back from the conflict in the
Democratic Republic of Congo — a move that could tip the civil war in the favour
of the Congolese rebels and pave the way for a new regional order in Central
Africa.
As the ministers of defence of the warring countries prepared to meet in Addis Ababa after the inconclusive talks at Victoria Falls this week, both Congolese President Laurent Kabila and the rebels rattled their sabres, noisily declaring their determination to fight on. The most crucial discussions at the talks taking place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, are those between Uganda and Angola. The outcome of these talks will determine how long Angola stays involved in Congo, and will help determine the political shape of the outcome.
The greatest threat to Kabila could lie in Museveni's proposal to Angola that if Angolan troops are pulled out of Congo, or stand aside and let the rebels reach Kinshasa, Uganda will guarantee that Angolan rebel movement Unita will not operate from Congolese territory. The deployment of Angolan troops to the west of Kinshasa two weeks ago was the key factor in preventing the rebels from reaching the capital and ousting Kabila. Angolan air power is also the essential ingredient if Kabila is to mount a successful counter-attack against the rebels, who control up to a third of the vast country, including Congo's third-largest city, Kisangani.
The initial Angolan reaction has been sceptical, according to press reports from Luanda. The Angolans seem to have treated the offer, initially at least, as an implicit threat to support the Unita rebels in Angola if a deal is not made.
Yet, such a proposal offers a way out of Congo for the Angolans. Their crack troops are tied up in a foreign conflict, while Unita continues to defy the peace process at home and the probability of major confrontation draws closer.
The point of the Addis meeting is to work out details of a ceasefire and the
withdrawal of foreign troops from Congo. Ministers from Angola, Zimbabwe,
Namibia, Congo, Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia are present, as well as
Organisation of African Unity Secretary General Salim Ahmed Salim.
Significantly, representatives of the rebels are not expected to attend, demonstrating how entirely the war is shaped by external forces. And those external forces don't have the means to pay for an extended war.
The talks will address the issues surrounding the various foreign interventions in Congo, all centring around Kabila's inability to control the different forces attacking Rwanda, Uganda and Angola across his borders — and the associated Unita threat to northern Namibia. The most positive outcome of the Victoria Falls talks was the recognition of the need to address the security concerns of Congo and those of its neighbours.
Angola's voice will be decisive in the outcome of the talks, as it was decisive in the military intervention. It has the military might in the region; the Congo rebel groups are outnumbered and outclassed, despite the Angolan army's operational problems of old equipment and some forces in need of retraining. But Angolan military might does not make this a winnable war.
Africa analyst Bill Minter told the Mail & Guardian: "It is an illusion for anyone to think they can control this. Military intervention won't stabilise the Congo; stability can only be a result of political coherence within the Congo — otherwise the problems will only increase."
The Addis agenda has to include
pressure on Kabila to negotiate with the
rebel groups and, Minter adds, this
must include the civilian political parties
in Congo. It is self-evident this will only
be successful if Angola, Rwanda and
Uganda come away from the meetings
with their security needs met, which will
likely include agreements for troops to
police all the borders.
The United Nations has sent a political
representative and two military advisers
to the Addis meetings to work out the
modalities of such an agreement. A
peacekeeping force, which could
include South African troops, is being
mooted as a way of stabilising the
country and defending the borders
while a political transition to democracy
is negotiated and implemented.
A deal between Angola and Uganda
could amount to a critical reshaping of
the Central African political agenda. If
Kabila continues to ignore the
politico-ethnic issues which have ripped
Central Africa apart over the past five
years, the region will continue to
reshape itself forcibly.
With Ugandan backing, a firm
agreement for Angola might be forthcoming. Without Angolan support, Zimbabwe's
military intervention will crumble, a move that would prove
enormously costly — in both financial and political terms — for Robert Mugabe.
Angola needs the Ugandan agreement to be able to confront the developing threat
from Unita. The UN is about to decide whether to extend its peacekeeping mandate
there until June 1999, but it is clear the largely unpaid budget for Monua (UN
Monitoring Unit) will be a major issue in the decision. UN Secretary
General Kofi Annan says the UN will withdraw in the event of a major military
confrontation, or if Unita in particular continues to fail to complete the peace
process.
The government has moved to sideline Unita leader Jonas Savimbi by recognising the rebel splinter group formed last week after the government suspended Unita representation in the government until Savimbi disarms. Isias Samakuva, who headed the Unita delegation, has left Angola.
With a complete breakdown of communication between Unita and the government, and Unita's refusal to talk to the troika which monitors the peace process — the United States, Portugal and Russia — there is now little optimism that Angola can avoid major military confrontation. Unita shows no sign of complying with the peace process or moving to disarm. It has in the past week shot down a plane and occupied the diamond-mining centre of Luremo. If the UN decides not to continue the Monua mandate next week, it will be a signal for war — and Angola will need to bring its troops and planes back from Congo. -- Electronic Mail& Guardian, September 11, 1998.